Probabilistic Analysis of Ground Surface Vibration Due to Train Movement, a Case Study on Tehran Metro Line 4

Ground surface vibration produced by moving train is one of the most important aspects in urban areas. The purpose of this study is the probabilistic analysis of ground surface vibration, which is generated by metro transportations. For this reason, Tehran metro line 4 is considered as a case study. In this paper, at first, a new procedure is used to simulate train dynamic load. In the second step, based on the variation of geomechanical properties and train characteristics in Tehran metro line 4, more than 60 numerical models are simulated. The results of numerical simulations are analyzed by multivariate statistical technique and an equation for prediction of peak particle velocity (PPV) in the ground surface is presented. In the next step, probabilistic analysis is done using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Finally, sensitivity of input data on ground surface vibration is discussed and the impact of geomechanical properties and train characteristics on the surface vibration is considered. Based on the probabilistic analysis, PPV in the surface region of Tehran metro line 4 is <2.76?mm/s with 95?% probability.