中国区域PRED系统研究进展

在对区域PRED系统内涵理解的基础上，比较了它与区域可持续发展的异同。区域PRED系统是以区域人口、资源、环境和发展四个子系统的协调发展为目标，可持续发展是一个宏观的概念，区域PRED系统的协调发展是可持续发展的前提条件．而可持续发展是区域PRFD系统的协调发展最终目标。在对比分析了前人研究区域PRED系统的指标体系和量化方法，结合新疆的实际，对原先较适用于工业发达、环境污染严重的大中型城市的可持续度模型进行了改进。针对西部干旱区特殊的地理环境和农牧业为主体的经济结构，将水资源总量和生态环境因子引入可持续度模型，分别替代模型中原有的资源消耗因子和环境质量因子。水资源总量是制约以农牧业为主的干旱区中小绿洲经济协调发展的重要因子．对于以农牧业为基础产业的干旱区域来说能源的需求远不及对水资源的需求．将水资源总量作为一个指标引入评价模型。同时生态环境变化引起的区域协调发展问题对干旱区尤为重要，西部地区生态环境的脆弱性成为制约经济协调发展的重要因子，是将生态环境引入可持续度模型中的原因。结果表明改进后的可持续度模型用于评价工业不发达、生态环境脆弱的西部干旱区所得结果与该地区的现实基本相符。

Progress of Study on Chinese Regional P-R-E-D System

Basing on the learning of connotation of regional P-R-E-D system,this article compares the difference between regional P-R-E-D system and regional sustainable development. Regional P-R-E-D system has aimed for harmoniously development of regional population?resource?environment and development,while sustainable development is a macroscopical conception,the harmoniously development of regional P-R-E-D system is the precondition of sustainable development while sustainable development is the final target of regional P-R-E-D system. This paper analyzes the different index system and quantitative methods of predecessors. Especially combining the facts of Xinjiang,improves sustainable model which has been used to evaluate large and middle cities which has developed industry and seriously polluted environment. Aiming at special geographical region and economic structure which main body is agriculture and pasture in west arid land,uses water gross factor to take the place of energy sources consuming factor,and uses eco-environment factor to take the place of environment quality factor,Water gross is an important factor restrict the harmonious development of small oasis economy,as for the arid land which basis industry is agriculture and pasture,the need of energy sources is far less than the need of water resource,so introduce water gross factor to the evaluating model. While it is very important to the arid land that the problems of regional harmonious development caused by the changes of eco-environment,the frangibility of eco-environment in west area become the restrictive factor of economic harmoniously development,this is reason why the article introduce eco-environment to the sustainable model. Applying this model to Minfeng country,the result indicate that the improved sustainable model is appropriate to evaluate the areas which industry is undeveloped and environment is fragile.