城市韧性对旅游经济的空间溢出效应研究——以长三角城市群为例

城市为旅游发展提供支撑,其韧性水平对区域旅游发展具有重要的影响。论文利用长三角城市群各地区2004—2018年的面板数据,在定量测算城市韧性的基础上,借助空间面板杜宾模型揭示城市韧性对旅游经济的空间溢出效应。结果显示：长三角各地区城市韧性水平空间差异显著,但总体上韧性水平呈现上升趋势。城市韧性与旅游经济之间存在较强的空间相关性,城市韧性对旅游经济具有显著的空间溢出效应(ρ=0.444,P<0.01)。其中,城市经济韧性和城市生态韧性对旅游经济具有正向溢出效应,城市社会韧性和城市工程韧性对旅游经济具有负向溢出效应。未来城市旅游发展需要关注城市韧性水平,注重城市韧性的空间溢出效应,避免虹吸效应,同时还需要加强长三角城市群区域间交流合作,促进旅游经济高质量发展。

Spatial spillover effect of urban resilience on tourism economy:A case study of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Cities provide support for tourism and their resilience level has an important impact on regional tourism development. Based on the panel data of various regions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2004 to 2018 and the quantitative assessment of urban resilience, the spatial spillover effect of urban resilience on tourism economy was revealed by using the spatial panel Durbin model. The results show that the spatial difference of urban resilience level is significant, but the overall resilience level is on the rise. There is a strong spatial correlation between urban resilience and tourism economy, and urban resilience has a significant spatial spillover effect on tourism economy (ρ=0.444, P<0.01). Among the resilience dimensions, urban economic resilience and urban ecological resilience have positive spillover effects on tourism economy, while urban social resilience and urban engineering resilience have negative spillover effects on tourism economy. In the future, the development of urban tourism needs to pay attention to the level of urban resilience and its spatial spillover effects, and avoid the siphon effect. It is also necessary to strengthen regional exchanges and cooperation in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration to promote the high quality development of tourism economy.