基于产业结构关联视角的区域经济韧性作用机理研究——以江苏省为例

探讨经济韧性的作用机理有助于增强经济体对冲击的抵抗能力,并提高冲击后的复苏成效。因此,论文从自身对比的纵向角度剖析了江苏省经济韧性水平,并通过网络分析方法研究其多年投入产出表以明晰产业结构变化状况与经济韧性作用机理,得出以下结论：① 从自身对比的纵向角度而言,江苏省经济韧性在经济危机冲击中呈现出“高—低—中”的状态;② 核心行业及其关联占据了产业网络结构中的主要位置,通过刺激现有核心行业能够实现经济体的高韧性;③ 发掘并扩展新的经济增长点能有效提升经济系统的综合韧性,其内涵在于以更强的增长中和、弥补衰落;④ 经济韧性的作用机理可以理解为经济体在面对冲击时,通过放弃网络边缘行业以集中发展要素维系其核心行业架构的正常运转,传统核心行业的受损状态与新型行业成长速度共同决定了区域经济韧性发挥效果。

Mechanism of regional economic resilience from the perspective of industrial structure relevance:Taking Jiangsu Province as an example

Exploring the mechanism of regional economic resilience is of great significance for realizing the rapid recovery of the economy after shocks. As a major province of economic activities, Jiangsu Province's industrial structure changes are the epitome of China's economic transformation. An analysis of its resilience changes and the inherent logic can provide a reference for other provinces. This research analyzed the economic resilience level of Jiangsu Province based on a longitudinal comparison. It used network analysis methods to study the multi-year input-output table of the province to clarify the changes in industrial structure and the mechanism of economic resilience, and arrived at the following conclusions: 1) From the longitudinal perspective of self-comparison, the economic resilience of Jiangsu Province has shown a "high-low-medium" state in the face of the impact of economic crises. 2) Core industries and links occupy the main position in the industrial network structure. By stimulating the existing core industries to achieve high resilience of the economy, the essence lies in the interconnections between core industries to induce and drive the overall industrial structural change, but this strategy is difficult to maintain in the long run. 3) Discovering and expanding new economic growth points can effectively improve the overall resilience of the economic system. Its connotation is to neutralize and compensate for declines with stronger growth, thereby reducing the intensity of economic shocks and reducing the risks of subsequent industrial structural reforms. 4) The mechanism of economic resilience can be understood as that, in the face of shocks, an economy maintains the normal operation of its core industrial structure by abandoning network edge industries to concentrate development factors. The damage state of traditional core industries and the growth rate of new industries together determine the effect of regional economic resilience. This research provides a new perspective for regional economic resilience. Based on input-output data, it can effectively interpret regional development status and identify economic resilience.