秦岭北麓现代泥石流灾害活动周期的灰色预测

本文应用灰色系统理论,在对控制泥石流形成的内、外营力要素灰色关联度进行分析的基础上,分别建立了秦岭北麓现代泥石流灾害活动周期的长期、短期及近期灰色动态时间序列预测模型(GM),并进行了灰色灾变预测。结果表明,影响本区泥石流活动的主要因素是雨量强度,其次为地震活动性。并预测出本世纪后半叶泥石流灾害出现的年份为:1962,1966,1982,1988,1994～1995,前四次已与泥石流实际活动年份相符。近期泥石流活动期的预测,对泥石流灾害的预防有实用意义。

THE GREY PREDICTION OF THE DISASTER'S ACTICE PERIOD OF THE MODERN DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE NORTHERN QINLING MOUNTAIN FOOT

The debris flow dissaster can be regarded as an integral and complicated grey system affected by both the endogenic and exogenic forces simultaneously. Using the grey systematic theory, the author makes calculations of the relational coefficient, grade and seguence concerning the endogenic and exogenic forces which control the formation of the modern falling-rain mud-rock flows in the northern piedmont of the Qinling Mountains. It is suggested that the exogenic force factor-the precipitation intensity is mainly resp-onsible for the formation of the dissasters and the endogenic force factor-the seismic activity is the secondary one. Based on above, the several grey system models ( called as GM 1, 1 ) for the long-range period, the shors-range period and the near future forecasts are respectively established. The mian models are as folows. and The grey forecasting indicates that the five times catastrophic debris flow dissasters should occur respectively in 1962, 1966, 1982, 1988 and 1994 or 1995 during the later half of this century. In fact, the former four times have been in accord with the years in which the mud-rock flows behave. The next active upsurge of the mud-rock flows will be predicted about the mud-rock flow active period is of practical significance.