L ogistic 模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

随着城市大规模工程建设的开展,由此引发的地面沉降对区域生态环境、基础设施的影响不容忽视,地面沉降预测与控制是亟待深入研究的重要课题。研究表明,地面沉降基本经历发生、发展、成熟,最后到达一定极限沉降量的过程,这与Logistic模型反映事物的发展规律非常接近。文中建立地面沉降量Logistic预测模型,以某地区地面沉降实测数据为例进行定量模拟预测,结果表明,Logistic预测模型能很好的拟合沉降量—时间关系曲线,而且能够对地面沉降进行较为准确的预测。

Application research of Logistic model to the prediction of land subsidence

With the economic globalization and large‐scale of city project construction ,the impact on infrastructure ,regional ecological environment caused by the ground subsidence cannot be ignored .The prediction and control of ground settlement are the important issue which needs to be studied further . Research show s that land subsidence has experienced occurring ,development ,mature and finally reached a certain limit settlement ,w hich is similar to the Logistic model reflecting the law of development of things . Therefore ,the Logistic prediction model of land subsidence is established in this paper .The ground settlement data of a certain area is used for quantitative simulation and prediction .The results show that Logistic prediction model can well fit the relationship between the amount of time settlement curve ,and can carry on the accurate prediction of land subsidence .