指数平滑技术在斜坡位移预测中的应用

应用趋势型数据指数平滑模型预测了链子崖危岩体监测点GA的位移量.根据其观测数据呈线性趋势的特点,选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和合适的平滑常数值进行了计算预测.预测结果表明位移预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明该模型可很好地应用于斜坡变形位移的预测.

Application of the Theory of Exponential Smoothing on the Displacement in the Deformation of Slopes

The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is applied to predict the displacement values at observation point GA of Lianziya hazardous rock masses in this paper. According to the characteristics of observation values, forecasting formula with linear trend of the twice exponential smoothing, appropriate formulae calculating smoothing coefficients and suitable smoothing constant value are selected and used to make a prediction. The forecasting result shows that the errors between the forecast values and the observation values are very little. It also indicates that this model may be well applied in the forecast of the displacement in the deformation of the slopes.