广州长者饭堂供需匹配的类型、差异及调整思路

以广州市长者饭堂为研究对象，采用百度地图API、居民点POI、广州市为老综合服务平台等多源数据，综合考虑可达性和运营可行性，并对两步移动搜索法进行改进，通过转换测度结果和过程变量，刻画长者饭堂的供需匹配情景。研究发现：1）广州长者饭堂在“行政单元全覆盖”推广下供需空间匹配度六成合格，形成平衡型、剩余型和短缺型的数量“631”结构；2）供给和需求的主体优势、空间分布错位，需求获取优势高于供给，空间呈现“内低外高—单中心圈层”供给结构与“南强北弱—多核网状”需求结构；3）出行优势中心两级分化，成为剩余型和短缺型的主要聚集地。主核心片内出现“老城中心洼地”和“黄埔高地”，外围行政区出现多个剩余小高地或短缺谷地。最后，为精准干预长者饭堂网点布局，提出存量提升、配对整合、存量精简等适宜不同空间关联条件的不匹配型优化思路，优先考虑强空间关联的剩余型和短缺型街道配对整合；以及直接提升、主动提升、被动提升的匹配型提升思路，实现广州长者饭堂全覆盖全匹配目标。

Types,Differences, and Optimization of the Spatial Match of Supply and Demand of Elderly Canteens in Guangzhou

The mismatch between the supply and demand of community-service-oriented home care facilities severely restricts the effective promotion of elderly care services in communities. This study sought to accurately measure the mismatch between supply and demand in terms of accessibility and feasibility. The spatial relationship between the supply and demand of Guangzhou's elderly canteens was evaluated by a new two-step floating catchment area method—exchanging results with process variables, and based on multi-source data, including Baidu Map API and residential POI. The study found that: 1) The spatial matching score between supply and demand of Guangzhou's elderly canteens is qualified (60%) under the promotion of administrative-units-overall-coverage, identified as a "631" type structure of the balanced surplus and shortage. 2) A bias exists in terms of superiority, in that the acquisition advantage for the demand side is superior to the supply condition, and also in terms of spatial distribution, with a single-core supply structure of "depression center toward high margin" and a multi-level-core demand structure of "strong in south, weak in north". 3) Since competitive extrusion acts on the urban center, both centers in central districts and sub-centers in outer districts with travel advantage are polarized into surplus and shortage, which is mainly caused by different degrees of crowdedness. The inner-city core loses its advantage of resources and location, changing into an inner-city depression, while the Huangpu core benefiting from the rapid development of urban construction and fewer people, keeps itself at a peak. Regarding sub-centers, the central streets of Panyu and Huadu face severe insufficiency, but the situation in Conghua and Zengcheng is the opposite. For the precise allocation intervention and overall coverage of community elderly care and facilities, ideas such as stock promotion, integration in pairs of spatial correlation, and stock downsizing toward the mismatch are proposed. Priority should be given to the matching integration of surplus and shortage areas with a strong spatial correlation. Further, direct, active, and passive paths were provided for the promotion of the matched items, which provide a reference for the accurate and efficient allocation to other elderly care facilities.