滇中城市群不透水表面时空变化与反常气候现象研究

人类活动对全球气候变化的影响是学科前沿也是热点和难点,其中城市不透水表面（IS）的热岛、雨岛等气候现象是研究重点,但有关其他气候要素的研究尚有待开展。本文以全球30 m IS数据集(GAIA)和中国区0.1°地面气象要素数据集为数据源,通过Mann-Kendall（M-K）突变检验法和贝叶斯模型等方法,对滇中高原湖滨城市群在1985—2018年间IS的时空变化特征、气象要素变化与IS的关系,以及反常气候现象进行了刻画。结果表明,相较1985年滇中城市群的IS面积增加了227.56%,2007—2018年增长速度达到最快（89.85 km²/a）,主要在S、NE、SE、W 4个方向扩张;34 a滇中城市群气候整体经历冷湿（1985—1995年）、暖湿（1996—2006年）、暖干（2007—2018年）3个快速转化阶段;IS具有显著的“热岛现象（气温+0.63 ℃,长波+4.49 W m²）”“雨岛现象（降水+38.27 mm）”“湿岛现象（比湿+0.51 g/kg）”“风速低岛现象（风速-0.025 m/s）”和“气压高岛现象（气压+602.64 Pa）”;滇中城市群的长波辐射主要分布在313~329 W m²、比湿8.9~9.9 g/kg、气压76235~79946 Pa、短波186~194 W m²、降水840~876 mm和876~998 mm、风速2.08~2.38 m/s、气温13.85~15.85 ℃区间内,且显著受IS分布影响。IS对气压和湿度的影响具有“气压反温度现象”和“湿度反常现象”,这可能与副热带高压带控制、海拔和大型湖泊（湖陆风）影响有关。

Spatiotemporal variation of impervious surface and abnormal climate phenomenon in central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration

Research on the impact of human activities on global climate change is not only the frontier of the discipline, but also the hotspot and difficulty. At present, the research focuses on the climate phenomena of urban impervious surface (IS), such as heat island and rain island effects, while the research on other climate factors has not yet to be carried out. Based on the Global IS Data Set (GAIA) and the China Region High-resolution Surface Meteorological Element Data Set, though the Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation test and Bayesian model, this paper studied the spatiotemporal variation of IS, the relationship between meteorological elements and IS, and abnormal climatic phenomena for the 34 lakeside urban agglomerations in the Central Yunnan Plateau controlled by the subtropical high from 1985 to 2018. The results showed that the IS area increased by 227.56% compared with that in 1985, with the highest growth rate (89.85 km²/a) in the past 10 years (2007-2018), mainly expanding in S, NE, SE and W directions. During the past 34 years, the climate of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration experienced three rapid transformation stages: cold and humid (1985-1995), warm and humid (1996-2006), and warm and dry (2007-2018). Compared with the permeable surface, IS had some significant climatic phenomena, including heat island (air temperature increases by 0.63 ℃, long wave increases by 4.49 W m²), rain island (precipitation increased by 38.27 mm), wet island (specific humidity increases by 0.51 g/kg), wind speed low island (wind speed decreased by 0.025 m/s) and air pressure high island (air pressure increased by 602.64 Pa). The spatial distribution of IS has a significant relationship with meteorological elements in a specific interval, such as long wave of 313~329 W m², specific humidity of 8.9~9.9 g/kg, air pressure of 76235~79946 Pa, short wave of 186~194 W m², precipitation of 840~876 mm and 876~998 mm, wind speed of 2.08~2.38 m/s and air temperature of 13.85~15.85 ℃. In that interval, meteorological elements respond significantly with the increase of the proportion of IS distribution. The impact of IS on air pressure and humidity has the abnormal characteristics of air pressure-temperature and humidity, which may be caused by subtropical high, elevation and large lakes (lake-land breeze).