江苏省流动人口城—镇—乡分布的时空分异与影响因素

以江苏省为研究区，探索了2010—2020年间流动人口在城、镇和乡（即城区、镇区和乡村3类地域类型）分布的时空分异和影响因素。研究发现：① 江苏省城和镇流动人口占常住人口的比例普遍增加，但镇的增幅明显高于城，乡的流动人口占比却在近一半的市县出现减少。② 江苏省流动人口苏南—苏中—苏北分布的梯度格局尚未发生根本性改变，苏南仍是吸引流动人口的高地，但苏中和苏北的镇对省内流动人口的吸引显著增强。③ 苏南一些乡和苏中、苏北一些镇流动人口占比有明显提升，体现了乡镇对流动人口的集聚能力。④ 模型结果显示，政府社会投入的增加有利于增强城、镇、乡对流动人口的吸引力；城镇居民恩格尔系数在城和镇对两类流动人口占比的影响有所不同；产业的影响因城、镇和乡的不同而分异：工业在城、镇、乡均为正向影响；产业结构的高级化在城镇仅对省内流动人口占比具有正向作用；农林牧渔业在乡为负向影响。

Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors on floating population distribution in city-town-rural areas of Jiangsu province

Based on the data of the sixth and seventh national censuses (Jiangsu province), this paper seeks to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing mechanism of the distribution of floating population in cities (districts), towns, and rural areas from 2010 to 2020. The findings show that: (1) The floating-permanent population ratio in cities and towns in Jiangsu generally increased from 2010 to 2020, but the rate of increase in towns was significantly higher than that in cities; the floating-permanent population ratio decreased in nearly half of the units in rural areas. (2) The gradient pattern (south Jiangsu - central Jiangsu - north Jiangsu) of the distribution of the floating population remained stable. South Jiangsu is still a highland for attracting the floating population, but towns in central and north Jiangsu have become attractive to the floating population in the province. There are also differences in the distribution of the intra- and inter-floating population in cities, towns, and rural areas. (3) The share of the floating population in parts of rural areas in south Jiangsu and some towns in central and north Jiangsu increased significantly, reflecting the agglomeration capacity of the towns and rural areas for the floating population. (4) The results of the models show that the increase in government social investments is important to enhancing the attractiveness of cities, towns, and rural areas to the floating population; the Engel coefficient of urban residents has different effects on intra- and inter-floating population in cities and towns; the impacts of industry in cities, towns and rural areas are positive; the upgrading of the economic structure only has a positive effect on the ratio of intra-floating population in cities and towns; the effect of the farming industry is negative in rural areas.