Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Cultivated Land Pressure in the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone and Its Influencing Factors

Cultivated land pressure is often used to reflect the shortage of cultivated land resources. By using the methods of the Cultivated Land Pressure Index, coefficient of variation and cold-hot spot analysis, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and dynamic change processes of cultivated land pressure in the counties of the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone from 2008 to 2017, and measures the factors which influence cultivated land pressure by using Principal Component Analysis. The results show that the cultivated land pressure in the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone has been in a “high pressure” state, and the Cultivated Land Pressure Index has been rising continuously from 2008 to 2017. The coefficient of variation of the Cultivated Land Pressure Index in the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone and various prefecture-level cities is fluctuating and rising, which indicates that the overall spatial differences in the cultivated land pressure in this region are expanding and polarization is obvious. In addition, the area where the municipal district of the provincial capital city is located is the core area of urban development and also the area with the greatest cultivated land pressure. The spatial pattern of cultivated land pressure cold-hot spots in the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone is obviously heterogeneous, in which the Pearl River Economic Zone is the main hot spot gathering area and the Xijiang Economic Zone is the main cold spot gathering area. Farmers' income, investment in fixed assets, GDP, population and other socio-economic factors are the main factors driving the changes in the cultivated land pressure in the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone. Furthermore, farming production factors, such as the multiple cropping index and grain yield per unit area, will also have an important impact on the changes in the cultivated land pressure.