可渗透性环境对盗窃犯罪分布的影响及社会解组的调节作用——兼论街道眼理论与防卫空间理论的适用性

为揭示街道眼与防卫空间理论的分歧源头和适用条件,论文以北京中心城区为研究范围,整合法律文书、定位服务、街景图像、兴趣点等多源大数据,将犯罪机会与社会生态理论置于同一分析框架,探讨了可渗透性环境对盗窃犯罪分布的影响以及社会解组因素的调节作用。结果表明,土地利用密度、功能混合度、路网密度、沿街通透性等可渗透性特征与盗窃密度整体呈现正向关联。建成环境对犯罪行为的影响因社会生态分异而变化,随着居住不稳定性、途经人员流动性、就业人员流动性、人口异质性、社会经济弱势地位等社会解组程度的加深,可渗透性环境的犯罪引致作用将不断放大,防卫空间理论更具适用性。而在社会结构稳定的社区中,街道眼能够发挥自然监控作用,街道眼理论的解释力更强,现实生活中该类社区仍属少数,盲目采用新城市主义设计方法恐会加剧安全风险。

The influence of permeable built environment on theft crime pattern and the moderation effects of social disorganization: Applicability of street eyes and defensible place theories

To unravel the conditions of application of street eyes theory and defensible space theory as well as the reasons of their theoretical dispute, this study took the central urban area of Beijing as research area and systematically explored the impacts of the permeable built environment on theft crime and the moderation effects of social disorganization on such relationships by integrating crime opportunity theory and social ecology theory. Big data from multiple sources during 2016 to 2020, including court records, location-based service data, street view images, points of interest, and road networks were used together. The results indicate that characteristics of permeable built environment such as land use density, mixing degree of urban functions, road network density, and transparency of street buildings all have positive and significant associations with the density of theft crimes in general. Furthermore, the direction and intensity of incluence of built environment features on criminal activities vary depending on the social ecological factors of communities. In other words, the degrees of social disorganization moderate the links between permeable environment and theft distribution. With social disorganization exacerbating, including the increase in residential instability, visitor mobility, employee mobility, population heterogeneity, and socioeconomic disadvantages, the positive effects of permeable built environment on crime will be steadily magnified, which more conforms to the defensible space theory. On the contrary, street eyes theory has better explanatory power in communities with stable social structure and abundant social capital where street eyes can be activated so as to provide effective informal surveillance to ensure safety. Unfortunately, according to the critical value of moderators estimated by the regression models, the later situation is less common in Beijing, suggesting that defensible space theory is more applicable in the majority of communities and the safety risks would increase when applying the approach of New Urbanism.