中国亲生亲卖犯罪的时空格局与决策机制

基于“中国裁判文书网”拐卖儿童犯罪案例数据，综合运用数理统计、空间分析等方法探究中国亲生亲卖犯罪的时空特征与决策机制。结果表明：1）被卖儿童呈现“低龄化”特征，多以1岁以内婴儿为主，男童远多于女童；出卖人多为中青年男性或青年女性，以无业、农民和工人群体为主，主要通过熟人社会网络/特殊职业群体/拐卖犯罪人介绍、借助网络媒介主动联系、或经买家/中间人诱导劝说将子女出卖给具有强烈需求的买方。出卖原因包括经济困难、未婚生育、子女众多、中介拉拢、偿还债务等。2）时间演变上，犯罪年变化可划分为稳序低发，快速增长、持续高发，平稳下降3个阶段；月变化上出生和出卖时间呈现同步变化趋势。3）空间分布上，呈现以“四川―山东―福建”为核心的“三源”拐出，以“山东―福建”为核心的“南北两汇”拐入的空间格局；迁移路径上，总体呈现“西南源区省际拐出，南北汇区省内流动”的特征，省际迁移多在利益驱动下由拐卖犯罪集团主导，省内流动多因满足买卖需求由临时一次性结伙犯罪形成。4）亲生亲卖犯罪主要受背景因素、先前经验和情景诱导的综合影响，由潜在犯罪人在决策评估“收益-成本-风险”后作出有限理性选择。

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Criminal Decision-Making Mechanism of Offense of Selling Offspring in China

With the rapid development of the economic and social situation and the improvement of public security defense and governance, the quantity of cases of child trafficking by means of theft, forcible robbery, and deception has decreased significantly, and the offense of selling offspring has shown an obvious increasing trend. Based on the case data of child trafficking crime on the website of Chinese Judicial Documents, this study examines the spatiotemporal pattern and criminal decision-making mechanism of offense of selling offspring. The results are as follows: (1) Sold children are characterized by "younger age," most of them are zero-year-old infants, and males are far more represented than females. Most sellers are young and middle-aged men or young women, mainly unemployed, farmers and workers. They sell their offspring to buyers with strong demand through social networks of acquaintances, special occupational groups, traffickers, network media, or persuasion by buyers/intermediaries. The reasons for selling include economic difficulties, out of wedlock birth, extra births, intermediary solicitation, debt repayment. (2) Temporally, the annual change of crime can be divided into three stages: stable sequence and low incidence, rapid growth and sustained high incidence, and steady decline, which are mainly affected by China's population policy, action on combating trafficking, and the development of the website of Chinese Judicial Documents. The monthly change presents a synchronous trend on the birth and betrayal time of the children, with spring and summer being more represented than autumn and winter. (3) Spatially, the origin region of selling presents the pattern of "three sources" with "Sichuan-Shandong-Fujian" as the core, and the destination region of selling presents the pattern of "North-South two sinks" with "Shandong-Fujian" as the core on the macro level. Microscopically, it occurs in closed spaces with a frequent flow of people, and residential buildings and open spaces with a frequent flow of people. The overall trafficking path is "inter-provincial flowing out from the southwest source area and intra-provincial flow of the South-North sink area." Inter-provincial migration is mostly driven by interests and is dominated by trafficking criminal groups, while intra-provincial migration is mostly formed by temporary one-time gang crimes to meet the needs of buying and selling. (4) Based on the theory of rational choice, this study constructs a decision-making framework for the offense of selling offspring, and finds that the crime is mainly affected by the comprehensive influence of background factors, previous experience, and situational induction, and the bounded rational choice made by potential criminals under the decision-making evaluation of "benefit-cost-risk." After deciding to sell their children, potential criminals will choose the appropriate time, place, and way to maximize interests.