城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例

城市行政中心迁移是地方政府进行空间治理的重要手段，对城市经济发展具有深远的影响。论文以青岛市为案例，选取1988—2010年城市面板数据，采用合成控制法探究城市行政中心迁移的经济效应并分析背后的作用机制。结果表明：① 城市行政中心迁移可以提高以GDP对数值为衡量单位的城市经济效益，但经济增长效应具有滞后性；② 青岛城市行政中心迁移后，城市经济在短期内仍有惯性表现，城市行政中心迁移的经济增长效应在政策实施的第6年开始显现，整个城市的经济发展阶段可分为投资建设、缓慢增长、快速增长和趋于稳定4个阶段；③ 青岛城市行政中心迁移所带来的经济增长效应可以从政府引导效应、投资驱动效应和要素驱动效应3个方面去理解。研究不仅证明了城市行政中心迁移对城市经济的促进效应，也为地方政府评估行政中心迁移方案提供了重要参考。

Economic effects evaluation and mechanism analysis of urban administrative center relocation: A case study of Qingdao City

Urban administrative center relocation is an important means for local governments to carry out spatial governance. Scientifically based and well-planned urban administrative center relocation has a profound impact on urban economic growth. Taking Qingdao City as a case, this study used the urban panel data from 1988 to 2010 and the synthetic control method to explore the economic effect of urban administrative center relocation and analyze the underlying mechanism. The results show that: 1) The relocation of urban administrative center can improve urban economic performance measured by the logarithm of GDP, but the economic growth effect is lagged. 2) After the relocation of Qingdao's urban administrative center, the urban economic performance showed inertia in the short term. The economic growth effect of the relocation of urban administrative center began to appear in the sixth year of the implementation of the policy. The economic development of the whole city can be divided into four stages: investment and construction, slow growth, rapid growth, and stabilization. 3) The economic growth effect brought by the relocation of Qingdao's urban administrative center can be understood from three aspects: government-led effect, investment-driven effect, and factor-driven effect. This study not only proves the promotion effect of urban administrative center relocation on urban economy, but also provides an important reference for local governments to evaluate the relocation scheme of administrative centers.