风险扰动下的城市经济韧性多维测度与分析——以长三角地区为例

随着城市间经济联系日益密切,风险扰动对城市的经济韧性发展有着较大的冲击影响,深入研究城市经济韧性对于城市经济良性发展和提升经济抵御能力具有重要意义。论文选取亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机两次典型的经济风险扰动,以长三角城市为研究对象,以产业相对多样化、产业相对专业化、区域经济联系强度和地区经济敏感度的多维综合评价法对长三角城市经济韧性进行了测度,并对其时空格局的演化、特征及成因进行了分析,结果表明：① 长三角地区内大部分城市的产业相对多样化指数呈不断下滑趋势,相对专业化整体态势稳定上升,有利于区域产业分工和一体化发展,应对风险扰动的经济韧性能力强,而安徽省内部分城市专业化指数过高且存在产业同构化现象;② 城市产业相对专业化指数区域差距不断增加,与其主导产业结构有显著关系;③ 核心城市与各城市间的联系总量占比逐年降低,核心城市上海的集聚能力仍较高,致使城市间差距增加,不利于城市经济韧性的整体协同;④ 城市抵抗力和恢复力与其经济发展模式密切相关,经济风险扰动对不同城市的经济增长,存在由沿海城市向内部城市的地域先后性影响。论文有助于弥补已有研究在城市群地区尺度经济韧性研究方面的不足,以期为中国城市经济可持续和区域高质量协同发展提供方法指导。

Multidimensional measurements and analysis of urban economic resilience under the disturbance of economic risks: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta,China

With the increasing economic interaction between cities, disturbance of economic risks has a great impact on their economic resilience. Examining urban economic resilience is crucial for the economic development of cities. Using economic risk disturbances of the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis as examples, this study measured economic resilience from four dimensions, including relative-diversity index, relative-specialization index, regional economic connection intensity, and regional economic sensitivity, and analyzed the characteristics and change of the spatial and temporal patterns for cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and their causes. The results show that: 1) The relative-diversity index of most cities declined from 1997 to 2016. The relative specialization developed stably, which promoted the regional industrial division and the improvement of economic resilience. Some of the cities in Anhui Province exhibited structural homogeneity in manufacturing industries. 2) The relative-specialization index showed significant regional differences, which was correlated with dominant industrial structure. The relative-specialization index of the eastern cities was medium, while the western cities mainly developed resource-based economy with high specialization. In the face of economic risk disturbances, some cities in the region tended to strengthen the traditional low-efficiency industry model. These cities had low regional coordination ability, which negatively affected economic resilience and high-quality development. 3) The proportion of total connection between a core city and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration decreased year by year, and the agglomeration ability of core cities is still strong, hindering the systematic development of economic resilience. Shanghai was one of the highest regional economic connection intensity cities with its large economic volume, multiple industrial types, and large population, leading to the increasing regional economic gap in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Spatially, the regional economic connection intensity between eastern cities was higher than that of western cities. 4) The resistance and recoverability of cities in the urban agglomeration were closely related to their economic development models. Export-oriented cities were the first to be seriously affected by economic risk disturbances and had low resistance in the period of urban economic contraction. However, the cities with high-tech industries and domestic demand industries developed rapidly in the period of urban economic expansion. Economic risk disturbances had regional sequential influence on the economic growth of different cities. This paper is helpful to remedy the deficiency of the existing literature on urban economic resilience from the perspective of urban agglomeration, and provides methodological guidance for the high-quality and sustainable development of urban and regional economies in China.