贵州省近60 a温度变化及其时空分布特征

通过站点历史沿革考察、地形环境GIS分析及气象要素空间分布特征分析，提出了地形复杂地区合理选取气候代表站的方法，确定了贵州省48个气候代表站并做了必要的验证，综合应用时间序列分析、气候突变检测和小波分析方法，研究了1961~2020年贵州省温度变化趋势及其时空分布特征。结果表明:（1）近60 a贵州省温度变化总体呈上升趋势，表现出以20世纪80年代中期为转折点的先下降后上升的变化特征，1985年至今增温速率为0.26℃/10 a，增暖趋势十分显著，而日最低温度的上升更为明显，对应冬季的增温最为显著；（2）近60 a贵州大部分地区升温速率在0.1~0.2℃/10 a，西部升温高于东部，增温局地性差异明显；（3）贵州省平均温度在1987年和1998年存在显著的升温突变，1987年的大幅升温改变了此前的持续降温趋势，而1998年之后的升温速率更是显著增大；（4）近60 a贵州省温度变化存在20 a时间尺度的主振荡周期，且进入21世纪以后该周期信号开始变强，目前处于2012年以来升温半周期的末期，根据其周期振荡特征预计未来10 a内贵州省温度总体可能会有所下降。 

Temperature Change and Its Spatiotemporal Characteristics in Guizhou Province in Recent 60 Years

By investigating the historical evolution of the stations, the GIS analysis of topographic environment and the spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological elements, the method of reasonably selecting representative climate stations in complex terrain areas is proposed, 48 representative climate stations in Guizhou province are selected to make the necessary verifications. Using methods such as time series analysis, climate abrupt change detection and multi-timescale analysis, the trends and the temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature change in Guizhou province during 1961~2020 are revealed. Major conclusions are as follows: (1) The average temperature in Guizhou province shows an increasing trend in the past 60 years totally, showing the change characteristics of first decline and then rise with the turning point in mid-1980s. The warming rate has been 0.26℃/10a since 1985, and the warming trend is very obvious, while the daily minmum temperature rises more obviously, and the corresponding winter temperature is the most obvious. (2) In the past 60 years, the average temperature rising rate in most areas of the province was 0.1~0.2℃/10a , and the warming rate in west areas of the province was more obvious than that in the east areas with obvious local difference. (3) The average temperature of Guizhou Province in 1987 and 1998 had a significant warming mutation, the large warming in 1987 changed the previous trend of continuous cooling, and the heating rate after 1998 was significantly increased. (4) The temperature change in Guizhou Province in the past 60 years has a main oscillation period of 20a , and the signal of this period begins to strengthen after the 21st century. At the end of the heating half cycle since 2012, according to the characteristics of its periodic oscillation, it is expected that the temperature in Guizhou Province might be decreased in the next 10 years.