深度贫困地区农户脱贫稳定性测度及影响机理研究

农户脱贫稳定性研究可为深度贫困地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果和乡村振兴有效衔接提供重要的理论依据。论文基于可持续生计视角进一步厘定了“农户脱贫稳定性”概念,从自然资本、物质资本、社会资本、人力资本和金融资本5个维度构建了农户脱贫稳定性评价指标体系,选取地处深度贫困地区的贵州省天柱县为研究区,测算1295户样本农户脱贫稳定性指数,基于不同方法共同识别影响因素并探究影响机理,提出构建稳定脱贫的长效机制。结果表明：① 研究区农户脱贫稳定性指数整体水平偏高,脱贫稳定性较强,但农户个体差异性显著,其中物质资本和自然资本维度的脱贫稳定性较高,金融资本其次,人力资本和社会资本维度的脱贫稳定性较低,返贫风险较大;② 农户脱贫稳定性类型主要以一般型或稳定型为主,脱贫稳定性综合指数中各类型占比分布从高到低大致呈“水滴”特征,有12.44%的样本农户处于临界型,返贫风险较大;③ 技能培训、外出务工人口占比、土地流转、转移性收入占比、到乡镇政府距离和到主干道距离是影响研究区农户脱贫稳定性的主要影响因素;④ 构建了能力提升、产业培育、激发动力、完善基础设施和拓展就业“五位一体”的深度贫困地区农户脱贫稳定性长效机制。

Measurement and influencing mechanism of stable poverty alleviation of rural households in deeply impoverished areas

This study examined the stable poverty alleviation of rural households from a sustainable livelihood perspective. It constructed an evaluation indicator system from five dimensions—natural capital, physical capital, social capital, human capital, and financial capital—and selected Tianzhu County in Guizhou Province, which is a deeply impoverished area, as the study area. Using the stable poverty alleviation index based on a sample of 1295 rural households, this study identified the influencing factors, explored the mechanism of influence, and proposed a long-term mechanism of stable poverty alleviation. The research results show that: 1) The overall level of the stable poverty alleviation index of rural households in the study area is relatively high, but although the stability of poverty alleviation is relatively strong, there are significant differences between individual rural households. The stability of poverty alleviation in the dimensions of physical capital, natural capital, and financial capital is relatively high, but the stability of poverty alleviation in the dimensions of human capital and social capital is low. In the case of the latter, households are at greater risk of returning to poverty. 2) Stable poverty alleviation index of most rural households in the study area can be categorized as general or stable type. The distribution of stable poverty alleviation households can be described as droplet shaped, with about 12.44% of the sample households in the critical category and at a high risk of falling back into poverty. 3) Skills training, proportion of migrant workers, land transfers, proportion of transfer income, distance to township centers, and distance to main roads are the main factors that affect the stable poverty alleviation of rural households in the study area. 4) A "five-in-one" long-term mechanism of facilitating industrial development, enhancing capacities, expanding employment opportunities, stimulating motivations, and improving infrastructure for stable poverty alleviation of rural households in deeply impoverished areas has been established, with the aim of improving the stability of poverty alleviation in rural households.