1928—2017年南京城市户籍人口时空格局演变

以户籍人口数据为基础,运用多种人口密度模型,探究1928—2017年南京城市户籍人口时空格局演变特征,探讨了单中心与多中心城市人口密度模型的适用性,归纳总结了南京城市户籍人口空间结构的演化过程与响应机制。研究表明：① 1928—2017年南京城市户籍人口数量呈扁“S”型阶梯式增长态势与向心式“大分散、小集中”的户籍人口分布格局,以秦淮河为核心的人口集聚区一直是南京城市户籍人口分布的主中心;② 百年尺度南京城市户籍人口空间结构特征呈现点状单中心、轴式双中心、飞地式复合多中心与放射圈层式多中心等4个发展阶段;③ 南京城市户籍人口分布格局可归因成距离衰减规律、异速增长效应、空间极化特性、区域边缘结构等4种空间区位法则的共同作用结果。基于中心地理论的多中心模型假设验核效果最优,符合城市户籍人口分布格局的识别特征;④ 近百年来南京城市户籍人口时空格局演变历程是中国近现代城市转型的缩影。南京历经百年制度变迁,城市户籍人口的“强中心”空间格局一直保持稳定,未见逆城市化端倪。中国传统城市人口居住中心与西方以城市规划用地功能为基础的中心商务区有本质区别。

Spatio-temporal pattern of registered population in Nanjing from 1928 to 2017

Based on registered population data, this paper examined a variety of population density models to explore the spatio-temporal pattern of the registered population of Nanjing during the past century. The results showed that: (1) The number of registered residents in Nanjing from 1928 to 2017 showed a flat "S"-shaped growth trend, forming an extensive dispersion with localized concentration types. The population density was the greatest in the Qinhuai River area, which has been the main registered population center. (2) The spatial structure of the registered population included: point-single center, axis-double center, enclave compound-multi center, and radiation-circle polycentric center. (3) The polycentric model, which is based on the central place theory, provided the best explanation for the features of the spatial structure of the registered population. The registered population distribution pattern in Nanjing was attributed to the joint action of four spatial location rules: the distance-decay law, allometric growth effect, spatial polarization characteristic, and regional-edge structure. (4) The transitions in the city during the past century were not a de-urbanization but a temporary fluctuation because of social transformation. Notable differences remained between traditional-Chinese residential center and the central business district.