双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”，为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响，首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化，构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架，结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析，并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应，其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果，但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力；其次是创新力、内源力和外向力，其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2（2010—2018年）超越行政力的作用效应；最后是制度力；间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程，构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题，并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造统一的要素自由流动市场，通过“扩内需、调结构、深化对外开放”扩大市场需求，促进城市发展，培育与发展主导产业及其配套产业，抓住机遇“走出去”和建设高质量的服务型政府6个维度对其城镇化高质量发展的实现路径展开具体对策与建议的思考。

Urbanization-Development Dynamics and Realization Path in Chongqing under the Dual-Cycle New Development Pattern

The dual-cycle new development pattern, a consequence of changing times, "superposes" multi-scale spatial-output theory and the regional division of labor under the condition of market economy. It also introduces a new force for developing new forms of urbanization. To explore this influence, the present study first internalizes two exogenous variables in urbanization-development dynamics: technological innovation and institutional reform. It then constructs a new urbanization-dynamics factors-analysis framework for the "four-dimensional driving forces model + innovation force + institution force", combines this with the principal component-regression model, which empirically analyzes the development dynamics of Chongqing's new urbanization since 2000. Accordingly, this study uses Porter's "diamond model" to systematically consider the new urbanization development path. The results demonstrate: (1) Innovation and institutional forces incorporated into the urbanization-dynamics factors-analysis framework have had a significant positive driving effect on the urbanization of Chongqing; of these, innovation is the most evident. The advantages of technological innovation and institutional reform now underpin development dynamics, responding to changing times in a new era; (2) Although the development of new urbanization in Chongqing is the result of "six-dimensional forces," market and administrative forces are still the primary driving forces, followed by innovation and internal and external forces. Here, the driving effect of innovation on urbanization has surpassed the impact of administrative force during the second stage of urbanization in 2010-2018. The least significant effect is institutional force; it indirectly reflects that Chongqing's urbanization is an endogenous process. It is forecast and objectively necessary to construct a new development pattern; (3) Based on Porter's Diamond Model, researchers have pointed out problems in Chongqing, such as small growth volume, limited hinterland, insufficient market-purchasing power, unsustainable development, low-end products, and serious homogenization. To address this, the present study introduces specific countermeasures and suggestions for realizing high-quality urbanization development, based on six dimensions: developing advanced production factors; creating a unified free-flow market of factors; expanding market demand; promoting urban development; cultivating and developing leading and supporting industries by "expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure and deepening opening to the outside world"; and, seizing the opportunity to "go out" and build a high-quality service-oriented government. These results are expected to provide a theoretical basis and reference for research on development dynamics of urbanization in China, the high-quality development of urbanization in Chongqing, and the integration of the Chengdu-Chongqing dual city economic circle.