“一带一路”商品贸易网络的社团结构及其经济收敛效应研究

采用社团检测方法探究“一带一路”沿线国家商品贸易网络社团动态演化特征，利用2003~2017年沿线各国面板数据，结合新古典增长理论构建β收敛模型，分析社团内部经济收敛状况，探讨贸易网络社团内部联系对缩小各国经济发展差异的效应。研究表明：“一带一路”商品贸易网络密度不断增强，形成跨区域联系的贸易合作体系；“一带一路”商品贸易网络社团演化较为稳定，2013年后东南亚-西亚社团国家数量突增；欧洲国家内部联系紧密，形成区域性贸易合作体系，仍为“一带一路”贸易网络的弱影响区；国家之间的贸易联系对缩小各国的经济发展水平有明显的促进作用；全时段内，沿线各国经济增长呈现出明显的收敛趋势；世界金融危机有利于加快社团内部收敛速度，推动区域一体化进程。社团内部收敛速度显著高于整体贸易网络收敛速度，以中国为核心的东南亚-西亚社团在三个时段内均呈现出收敛趋势。

The community structure and its economic convergence effect of merchandise trade network in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area

Based on per capita GDP panel data of each country from 2003 to 2017, Beta convergence model supported by neoclassical growth theory is applied to test the convergence hypotheses.The research reveals that: Density of the merchandise trade network in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area has been increasing, forming a cross-regional trade cooperation system.The evolution of communities in merchandise trade network was relatively stable over the past 15 years.Since 2013, the number of countries in Southeast Asian-West Asian community has soared, covering almost all Asian countries included in the "Belt and Road initiative" area.European countries have close internal links with each other and form regional trade cooperation system, while they are not fully integrated into trade network in the "Belt and Road initiative" area.Trade links play a significant role in reducing the economic growth difference between countries.The world financial crisis speeded up the convergence rate in trade communities and promoted the process of regional integration.During the whole research period, the economic growth of countries along the Belt and Road supported convergence hypotheses.The convergence rates of trade communities were higher than that of overall trade network.Especially, the China-centered Southeast Asian-West Asian community has shown convergence trend in all the three periods.