我国能源活动CO2排放在2020—2022年之间达到峰值情景和可行性研究

全球到2100年实现将温度上升控制在和工业化前相比2℃以内，已经成为一个政策目标。本文结合中国能源环境政策综合评估（IPAC）模型的近期研究结果，分析了实现全球2℃温升目标下我国能源活动的CO₂排放情景，并对其关键因素进行研究，得到实现这些情景的可行性。研究表明，考虑到我国经济转型、能源效率提升、可再生能源和核电的发展、碳捕获和碳封存技术，以及低碳生活方式的转变，我国能源活动的CO₂排放是可以在2025年之前，甚至更早（如在2020—2022年）实现排放峰值，峰值总量在90亿t左右，之后开始下降，这和我国在全球2℃温升目标情景中给予的碳空间相一致，支持我国未来在全球温室气体减排中的国际合作路径，以及国内低碳发展政策的制定。实现这样的减排路径，需要在既有的环境和能源政策之外制定针对气候变化减缓的明确和长期的政策，如碳定价。

Scenario and Feasibility Study for Peaking CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China

To control the temperature increase to be limited under 2℃ in 2100 compared with that in pre-industrialization period, became a international target for policy-making. This study presents the modeling analysis results from IPAC model, on emission scenarios for CO₂ from energy activities, and analyzes key factors in the scenarios, to understand the feasibility to reach the pathway. It concludes CO₂ emission from energy activities could peak in 2020-2022, which could be driven by economic structure transformation, energy efficiency improvement, development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology diffusion, and low-carbon life style changes. The peaking amount of CO₂ would be around 9 billion tons, and start to decrease after that, which could match with the emission pathway for China to following the global 2℃ emission pathway. This could be used in the domestic policy-making process and international collaboration. In order to implement this emission pathway, it is essential to make further climate change oriented policies such as carbon pricing, besides the existing environment and energy policies.