1960―2013 年华南沿海海洋站SST 变化及其影响因子

根据 1960―2013 年华南沿海 7 个海洋站的实测海表温度（SST）及全球平均表面温度、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）、ENSO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面风速等资料，采用线性回归、Yamamoto 突变检验、小波分析、相关分析等方法，研究了近 54 a 华南沿海 SST 时空变化及其影响因子，结果表明：1）近 54 a 华南沿海的年平均 SST呈准同步变化和显著增暖趋势，其气候倾向率为 0.08~0.17℃/10 a，平均为 0.12℃/10 a，以冬季增暖最为显著；2）SST 变化在 1997/1998 年出现突变现象；3）SST 变化有多时空尺度的变化特征，其中最显著的变化周期是 2~4 a的年际变化；4）SST 变化深受 ENSO 事件的影响，约滞后于 MEI 指数 2~4 个月；5）影响 SST 变化趋势的主要因子有全球气候变暖、PDO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面层风速等。

Influencing Factors of SST Variation along the South China Coast during 1960-2013

Sea Temperature is a conventional subject of ocean research, and sea surface temperature (SST) research is the focus in the study of ocean temperature, which is the most valuable ocean hydrological element in the research of oceanographic physics and global climate change. With the observational data of SST from seven Marine Environmental Monitoring Stations (MEMS) along South China coast, Global average surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), SCSH index and sea surface wind-speed during the period 1960-2013, we used the methods of linear regression，Yamamoto mutation test，wavelet analysis and correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between SST and global climate change, temperature of South China coast, SST of the South China Sea and SCSH index along the South China coast over the past 54 years, we also discussed the reasons for warming hiatus phenomenon in South China coast during the period from 1998 to 2013. The conclusions were as follows: 1) The annually averaged SST of all the MEMS showed a quasi-synchronous changes and significant warming trend over the past 54 years, the climate had an tendency rate of 0.08-0.17℃/10 a, with an average of 0.12℃/10 a, the most significant warming was in winter (0.20℃/10 a), secondly in autumn (0.14℃/10a), and minimum in spring and summer (0.09℃/10 a, 0.08℃/10 a); 2) The mutation of SST occurred in 1997/1998; 3) The character of SST variation was multi-spatiotemporal, with the main cycle of 2-4 years; 4) SST changes were influenced by ENSO events, and lagged behind MEI index by about 2-4 months; 5) We also found that the main factors affecting SST were global warming, PDO, enhancement of the subtropical high and sea surface wind-speed along the South China coast.