中国大陆活动地块边界带主要断层的强震震间晚期综合判定

由于中国大陆强震主要分布在活动地块边界带上，所以活动地块边界带主要断层成为我国大陆型强震研究的重要目标，各强震孕育阶段的判定是大陆型强震原地复发的动力学过程研究主要内容，而目标断层是否处于震间晚期也是强震时间预测的重要研究基础.虽然地震短临预测仍存在诸多科学难题，但最近20年来全球若干强震相关研究表明，如果放宽预测时间尺度的要求，有些方法也可用于强震震间晚期的判定.本文以中国大陆活动地块边界带的391条断层段为研究目标，利用地震地质的强震破裂空段、大地测量的断层运动闭锁段、地震活动的中小地震稀疏段、数值模拟的库仑应力增强显著段等方法，综合判定中国大陆活动地块边界带可能处于震间晚期的主要断层段.本文结果仅是初步结果，该结果的可靠程度有赖于监测条件，其科学性有赖于大陆型强震孕育发生动力学过程的认识水平，虽然本文尝试给出中国大陆活动地块边界带主要断层的震间晚期判定结果，但其结果可靠程度、精细程度等均存在巨大的改善空间.最后，从断层孕震阶段判定需求的角度，本文尝试给出大陆型震源物理模型的具体基础模型，期望起到抛砖引玉的作用，也期望更多地震学家关注大陆型强震的物理机制及其预测基础研究.

Comprehensive determination for the late stage of the interseismic period of major faultsin the boundary zone of active tectonic blocks in Chinese mainland

Due to the earthquake being mainly distributed on the border of active blocks in Chinese mainland, major faults on block boundary belt become the main goal of continental earthquake research, and the determination of the seismogenic stage of strong earthquake is the main research content of continental earthquake recurrence in situ, whether the target fault is in the late stage of interseismic period is also an important research base of earthquake time forecasting. Although there are still many scientific problems in the prediction of impending earthquakes, some global studies on strong earthquakes in the last 20 years show that some methods can be used to determine the late stage of interseismic period if the prediction time scale is relaxed. The aim of this paper is based on the 391 faults on the block boundary belt section in Chinese mainland, using the seismic geological earthquake rupture empty segments, geodetic locking of fault movement and the scarce of small and moderate seismicity, and the numerical simulation method of the Coulomb stress, which significantly determines whether block boundary belt may be in the late stage of interseismic period. In this paper, the results are only preliminary results, the reliability of the results depends on the monitoring conditions, and their scientific significance depends on the understanding of the dynamics process of the continent earthquake. This paper tries to present the result of determining the late stage of interseismic period of the main fault on block boundary belt. However, there is a great room for improvement in the reliability and precision of the results. Finally, from the point of view of determining the fault seismogenic stage, this paper tries to give a specific basic model of the continental earthquake source physical model, hoping to attract more seismologists to pay attention to the physical mechanism of continental strong earthquakes and the basic research of their prediction.