未来50a中国地区冻土面积分布变化

在检验CMIP3模式比较计划中模式在中国地区的温度模拟效果的基础上，选取模拟效果相对较好的HadCM3、EACHE5模拟结果，采用Kudryavtsev方法，应用数字化土壤和植被资料，借助Arc-GIS，对未来50 a中国地区在A2情景下的冻土空间变化趋势进行了模拟计算. 结果表明，在A2情景下，未来50 a中国地区的冻土呈现出退缩趋势，在2050年，多年冻土在青藏高原地区的巴颜喀拉山-唐古拉山之间、冈底斯山地区出现退化，中国的冻土面积较2006年减少约10.7%.

Area change of the frozen ground in China in the next 50 years

Two models (HadCM3 and EACHE5), which have good ability for temperature simulation in China, are used to calculate the distribution of frozen ground in China, based on testing of the model performance of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The trend of frozen ground change in spatial distribution under Scenario A2 in 2006-2050 was calculated by the Kudryavtsev method with ArcGIS and using the datasets of digital soil and vegetation. In the next 50 years, the frozen ground in China will shrink. In 2050, permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau between the Bayan Har Mountains and Tanggula Range and in the Transhimalaya will degenerate. As compared with that in 2006, the frozen ground area in China will decrease about 10.7%.