一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报系统的建立与应用

依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统.台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件.大量的数值模拟结果表明,该模式能较好地重现历史台风风暴增水过程,对近2年台风风暴潮个例的预报结果表明,该业务系统对台风风暴增水具有较好的预报能力,文章同时分析了模式存在的一些问题.该业务系统实现了从资料采集、模式运行到预报结果输出的全自动化,显示采用图片和MICAPS两种方式,后者与现有气象业务平台一致.

A numerical forecast system for ty phoon storm surge over China coast

A numerical forecast system for typhoon storm surge over China coast is developed based on the three-dimensional baroclin-ic ocean circulation model of POM (Princeton Ocean Model). As the forced field, the forecasting wind field of typhoon over sea sur-face is constructed by a model developed by Shanghai Typhoon Institute. The effect of typhoon motion and the environmental wind field are considered and a more reasonable formula of wind stress under strong wind is applied. By numerical simulations with more than 37 typhoon storm surge processes over China coast, it can be concluded that it works well to recur the storm surge elevation of observations. The average errors between the simulated and observations are 17, 21 and 25 cm for whole process, within 10 h around the maximum water rising and at the maximum water rising time respectively. The time for maximum sea level increment appearing in simulation is basically consisted with the observations and the average error is about 1 h. Generally the maximum sea level incre-ment of simulation is smaller than observations especially in the condition of much strong storm surges with more than 200 cm sea level increment. For the process with double-peak structure, only the larger one is well simulated, although sometimes the smaller one ex-ists in the simulation. Because of the relatively short simulation period, the value of simulation is a little small during forerunner con-sidering the case that surge has already get rise at the beginning of the simulation, but it usually works well only if the time span of forerunner is not too short. According to the model result in recent 2 years, it is found that this operational system can accurately pre-dict the storm surge. An automatic manage process is build from data acquisition to model running and results output. The output is displayed both in the form of MICAPS (Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System), which is as the meteorological operation platform, and pictures which are shown on internet.