| 基于激发条件和堆积体稳定性的冰川降雨型泥石流预警模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢涛,尹前锋,高贺,陈芳,慎乃齐,林达明.基于激发条件和堆积体稳定性的冰川降雨型泥石流预警模型研究[J].冰川冻土,2019,41(4):884-891. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢涛 尹前锋 高贺 陈芳 慎乃齐 林达明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京100083;新疆交通建设集团股份有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830026;中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京,100049;中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京,100083;新疆交通建设集团股份有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐,830026;新疆交通建设集团股份有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830026;交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通运输部建设科技项目（2014318365110）；交通运输部科技示范工程项目（2016009）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在全球变暖的背景下，冰川泥石流将进入高发期。分析了冰川泥石流成因，选取日最高温度、日降雨量、泥水位、地表位移、含水率作为泥石流监测预警指标。通过层次分析法确定了5个指标的权重，提出了基于激发条件和堆积体稳定性的冰川降雨型泥石流预警模型。应用该模型成功对天山公路K636冰川泥石流沟2017年7月14日爆发的泥石流进行了预警，证明该预警模型有一定的可靠性和实用价值，为冰川泥石流预警研究提供了一种新的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 天山公路 冰川降雨型泥石流 层次分析法 预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-09-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-11-26 |
Study on early warning model of glacial-rainfall debris flow based on excitation condition and stability of accumulation body |
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| XIE Tao,YIN Qianfeng,GAO He,CHEN Fang,SHEN Naiqi,LIN Daming.Study on early warning model of glacial-rainfall debris flow based on excitation condition and stability of accumulation body[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2019,41(4):884-891. |
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| Authors: | XIE Tao YIN Qianfeng GAO He CHEN Fang SHEN Naiqi LIN Daming |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;2. Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co. Ltd, Urumqi 830026, China;3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;4. Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | In the context of global warming,glacial debris flow disaster will be in a high-incidence season. In this paper,causes of the glacial debris flow are analyzed,and five indexes are selected as monitoring indexes of an early warning model,which are daily maximum temperature,daily rainfall,mud water level,surface displacement and water content,respectively. Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is adopted to determine the weight of each index,and an early warning model of glacial debris flow is presented based on the excitation condition and stability of accumulation body. The early warning model has been successfully applied in a debris flow disaster,which broke out on July 14,2017 in the K636 glacial debris flow gully of Tianshan Highway, showing its reliability and practical value. The model will be useful also for the early warning research of glacial debris flow. |
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| Keywords: | Tianshan Highway glacial-rainfall debris flow analytic hierarchy process(AHP) early warning |
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