1950-2016年印度洪涝灾害时空分异特征

洪涝是影响印度社会经济发展的首要自然灾害。本文基于全球紧急事件数据库（Emergency Events Database，简称EM-DAT），通过识别洪涝事件，利用频次分析方法，分析了1950-2016年印度洪涝灾害事件频次的时空变化，揭示了印度洪涝灾害的时间和空间分异特征和因灾致死人口的变化特征。结果发现：（1）印度洪涝灾害呈现鲜明的季节变化特征，7-9月为高发季节，占总频次的65.704%，峰值出现在7月，占24.549%；1950-2016年洪涝频次总体呈增加趋势。（2）印度北部，特别是东北部，是洪涝灾害的高发区。（3）1950-2016年洪涝灾害致死人口随洪涝频次增加而增加，但单次死亡人口最大值和年最大死亡人口值均明显降低。由此表明，20世纪中叶以来印度抵御洪涝灾害的能力逐渐增强。本研究为进一步分析印度社会的脆弱性和未来气候变化情景下的洪涝灾害风险奠定了基础。

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Flood Disaster in India from 1950 to 2016

Flood is the primary natural disaster that affects social and economic development of India. Using the Global Emergency Database (EM-DAT), we count the flood disaster events in India. With the frequency analysis method, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of flood disaster events in India from 1950 to 2016 and, then, disclosed the spatial and temporal variations of flood disasters and deaths induced by flood in India from 1950 to 2016. The results showed that: (1) the flood disaster in India exhibit a distinct seasonal cycle, which is characterized by high frequency from July to September, accounting for 65.70%, with the peak in July, accounting for 24.55%. The annual frequency of flood increased generally from 1950 to 2016. (2) The spatial variations of flood frequency are characterized by high frequency in north, especially in the northeast; while, it is low in the south. (3) The death induced by floods in 1950-2016 increased along with increasing frequency of floods, but both the maximum death of each flood and the largest annual death decreased significantly. This finding indicates that India has gradually strengthened its ability to address floods disasters since the mid-20th century. This study could serve as foundation for further analysis of the vulnerability of Indian society and the risk of flood disaster in future climate change scenarios.