1971-2015年世界铁矿石资源供需与流动格局及其演变

本文研究了1971—2015年世界铁矿石供需与流动格局的时空变化,结果显示：① 世界铁矿石年产量期末比期初增加了12.26亿t,年均增长2.17%;1992年以前,欧洲曾是世界铁矿石的消费重心,但随后亚洲后来居上。② 研究期内世界铁矿石输出量年均增长达3.7%,大洋洲和南美洲成为铁矿石的主要输出地,2015年占世界的比重分别达53.73%和26.23%;本世纪以来铁矿石输入量最大的是中国、日本和韩国,2015年分别占世界总量的65.07%、8.94%和5%。③ 基于“场”理论,采用位势、“源”、“汇”、迹线等概念审视全球铁矿石流场的基本特征和流场成因,发现世界铁矿石流动的“位势”北半球较低,而南半球较高;亚洲、欧洲是主要的汇流场,大洋洲、南美洲是主要的源流场。本文研究揭示了近半个世纪以来世界铁矿石资源的流动状态及其演变过程,对于我国科学地制定产业政策具有重要价值。

The supply-demand and flow pattern of iron ore and its evolution in the world from 1971 to 2015

This paper studied the temporal and spatial variations of supply-demand and flow pattern of iron ore in the world from 1971 to 2015. The results show that: (1) The total production of iron ore in the world increased by 1.226 billion tons during this period and the average annual growth rate was 2.17%. Oceania and South America were major producers of iron ore and today accounted for more than 60% of the world's production. The consumption center of iron ore in the world was Europe before 1992, including the Soviet Union, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United Kingdom and France; and then turned to Asia gradually after 1992, including China, Japan, India and South Korea. (2) The total output of iron ore in the world increased by 1.260 billion tons and the average annual growth rate was 3.7%. Oceania and South America were the main iron ore export regions. The proportions of iron ore output in the above two continents accounted for 53.73% and 26.23% of the total export in the world in 2015, respectively. Since the beginning of this century, China, Japan and Korea have become the largest iron ore input countries. And the proportions of iron ore input in the above countries accounted for 65.07%, 8.94% and 5% of the total input in the world in 2015, respectively. (3) Based on the field theory, the characteristics of resource field were analyzed from the perspective of resource potential, flow distribution, flow traces and change reasons. The “potential” of the iron ore flow in the world was lower in the Northern Hemisphere while it is higher in the Southern Hemisphere. Oceania and South America were the main field sources, while Asia and Europe were the main field convergences, forming the busiest route of global iron ore shipping, namely South America/Australia—Far East route. Space distance, trade policy and market are important factors affecting the flow of iron ore. This paper reveals the flow state and evolution process of iron ore in the world over the past half century, and it has great values for the government to formulate industrial policies scientifically.