典型山地降水径流时空演变及“水-热-人-地”匹配性分析

山地是中国自然生态保护与经济社会发展问题交织、矛盾突出的区域。山地水资源受气候变化和人类活动综合影响发生演变,进一步影响到其与区域气候资源、土地资源以及经济社会之间的协调匹配,研究这些问题对辨识山地发展关键短板、提供山地问题解决思路具有基础意义。根据自然环境特点和经济社会发展状况,选择太行山、横断山和黔桂喀斯特三大典型山地开展研究,基于全国水资源调查评价成果及土地利用、经济社会数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析1956-2015年山地降水和径流时空演变特点;采用匹配距离和不平衡指数对山地的水（降水和径流）、热（积温和辐射）、地（面积和耕地）以及社会经济（人口和GDP）等4类要素匹配性进行综合对比分析。结果表明：三大典型山地中,太行山水资源禀赋最差,且2000年以来径流显著衰减,而横断山和黔桂喀斯特降水、径流丰富,且无明显变化趋势;从“水—热—人—地”对比来看,太行山以缺水问题为主,横断山多数地区土地与热资源偏少且水热空间差异大,黔桂喀斯特整体来说土地资源偏少;综合来看,水与其他要素的匹配性最差,特别是在太行山区,水的时空分布及其均衡匹配是保障山地可持续发展的关键。

Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation and runoff and analyses of water-heat-human-land matching characteristics in typical mountainous areas of China

Mountainous areas in China face complex problems due to conflicts between natural eco-environmental protection and socio-economic development. Mountain water resources have evolved in the context of climate change and human activities, which further affects their coordination and matching with regional climate resources, land resources and socio-economy. Hence, it is of fundamental significance for mountain development to study these issues to identify key weakness and provide solutions. The paper focuses on three typical mountainous areas under different natural geographic conditions and at socio-economic development levels in China, namely, Taihang Mountains Area (TMA), Hengduan Mountains Region (HMR) and Guizhou-Guangxi Karst Area (GKA), and studies the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation and runoff from 1956 to 2015 by Mann-Kendall test based on national water resources assessment results and statistical data of land use and socio-economy. The characteristics of natural and socio-economic factors are analyzed by matching distance and imbalance index. In this process, four groups of parameters are selected, including water (precipitation and runoff), heat (accumulated temperature and radiation), land (total area and farmland area) and socio-economy (population and GDP). The results indicate that, the water resources endowment of TMA is the worst, and significant reduction of runoff since 2000 makes it even worse, while the precipitation and runoff of HMR and GKA are abundant and there is no obvious change trend. According to the analysis of regional water-heat-human-land matching characteristics, TMA mainly suffers from water shortage, land and heat resources have great disadvantages in most parts of HMR with uneven distribution of water and heat, and land resources are relatively deficient in all counties of GKA. In general, mismatching degree of water and other factors is the highest, and the allocation and coordination of water are the key issue for sustainable development of mountainous areas, especially in TMA.