粤港澳大湾区区域一体化及其互动关系

粤港澳大湾区一体化过程中存在跨社会制度、跨法律体系、跨行政等级的复杂性,必然会遭遇一系列的摩擦。发掘粤港澳之间合作与冲突的焦点与关键时间节点,是对粤港澳大湾区一体化研究的重要补充。本文通过GDELT全球新闻事件数据库梳理了粤港澳大湾区一体化发展的历史和现状,对粤港澳三地互动关系进行研究。结果发现：① 内地与香港关系呈现出“M”型波动,两者之间的冲突被新闻媒体有所强化。② 内地与澳门之间的政策与民意表现为较高的一致性,两者之间的言语合作是互动关系的主导因素。③ 内地与港澳之间的互动关系总体上变得更加紧密,合作与冲突的频率都在上涨,内地—香港关系在粤港澳互动关系中的重要性不断被凸显。④ 粤港澳大湾区一体化建设的推进过程中,实际合作项目相对短缺,缺少多元化的抓手。粤港的经济和科技的竞合关系和香港局势的发展是粤港澳互动关系的主要影响因素。未来,粤港澳大湾区区域协调发展不仅要关注区域政策在空间上的投影,更要关注其在社会舆论与新闻媒体上的投影,促进一体化建设从实体空间建设向虚拟、话语空间的综合引导转变,强化“硬联通”与“软联通”的互动。

Regional integration and interaction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will inevitably encounter a series of frictions because of the cross-social system, cross-legal system and cross-administrative hierarchy. Research on the cooperation and conflict between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao is an important supplement to the integration study of the area. This paper reviews the process of integration development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1997 to 2019 through the global news event database GDELT. The results show that: (1) the relationship between China's mainland and Hong Kong presents a "M" type fluctuation, and the conflict between them has been amplified by the news media compared with the mainland-Macao relationship. (2) The policy and public opinion between China's mainland and Macao are highly consistent, as the verbal cooperation between them is the leading factor of the interaction. (3) The interaction between China's mainland, Hong Kong and Macao has generally become closer, along with the increasing frequency of cooperations and conflicts. The importance of the mainland-Hong Kong relationship in the interactive relationship between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao has been increasingly highlighted. (4) Material cooperation projects are still insufficient in the process of the regional integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and there is an urgent need for diversified cooperation. The economic and technological competitions and cooperations between Guangdong and Hong Kong are the main factors affecting the interactive relationship between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, as well as the tensions in Hong Kong. In the future, the coordinated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should focus on not only the projection of regional policies on space, but also its projection on social public opinion and the news media. It is necessary to combine the integration of physical space and virtue/discourse space, and strengthen the interactions between "hard connection" and "soft connection".