基于技术效率测算的京津冀城市土地集约利用潜力评价

现有城市土地集约利用潜力评价研究主要采用多指标综合评价方法,存在依据不充分、结果不可比、难反映动态变化等缺陷。针对此,基于集约潜力和技术效率的概念联系,把城市土地集约利用潜力定义为是城市土地利用技术效率的潜在提升所可能带来的土地节约量或产出增加量,构建了城市土地集约利用土地节约潜力和产出增长潜力定量评价模型,测算和分析了京津冀2006-2015年城市土地集约利用土地节约潜力和产出增长潜力的规模与占比情况。结果表明：① 京津冀城市土地集约利用潜力规模巨大且持续增加,土地节约潜力规模10年均值为709.80 km ²、净增量达543.96 km ²,产出增长潜力规模（2005年不变价）10年均值为4207.57亿元、净增量达3428.55亿元;② 京津冀城市土地集约利用潜力占比很高且持续提升,土地节约潜力占比10年均值为21.80%、净提高10.56个百分点,产出增长潜力占比10年均值为26.12%、净提高14.73个百分点;③ 京津冀13个城市土地集约利用潜力排名很稳定,且差距在扩大,显示出越发达城市集约挖潜越困难、越落后城市集约挖潜越容易的一般规律,以及集约挖潜容易者更加容易、困难者更加困难的马太效应。研究能够为城市土地集约利用实践与管理提供科学指导,有利于推进集约评价和效率测算研究之间的对话与交流。

Potential evaluation of urban land intensive use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on measurement of technical efficiency

The existing studies on potential evaluation of urban land intensive use mainly adopt the multi-index comprehensive evaluation approach, which has defects such as insufficient basis, incomparability of results and difficulty in reflecting dynamic changes. In view of this, this study introduced the theory and method of technical efficiency measurement into the potential evaluation of urban land intensive use. The potential of urban land intensive use can be defined as the land savings or output growths potential brought by the possible improvement of technical efficiency. Based on measuring the technological efficiency of urban land use with the SFA method, this paper constructed the quantitative evaluation models of land saving and output growth potential of urban land intensive use, and then measured and analyzed the scale and proportion of land saving and output growth potential in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2006-2015. The results show that the potential scale of urban land intensive use in the study area is very large and continuously increasing. The annual average of land saving potential scale is 709.80 km ², and the net increment in the 10 years is 543.96 km ², while the output growth potential scale is 420.76 billion yuan (the constant price in 2005), and the net increment in the 10 years is 342.86 billion yuan. The results also indicate that the potential proportion of urban land intensive use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is quite high and continuously rising. The annual average of land saving potential proportion is 21.80%, or an increase of 10.56 percentage points in the 10 years, while the annual average of output growth potential proportion is 26.12%, or an increase of 14.73 percentage points in the 10 years. The potential ranking between the 13 cities is stable and the gap is widening, showing the general rule that it is more difficult for developed cities and easier for underdeveloped cities to explore potentialities, as well as the Matthew effect that it is easier for the easy and more difficult for the difficult. The research can provide scientific guidance for the practice and management of urban land intensive use and facilitate the dialogue and exchange between intensification evaluation and efficiency measurement.