| 东北地震区地震活动趋势数学建模分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛丁.东北地震区地震活动趋势数学建模分析[J].东北地震研究,2008,24(3):17-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛丁 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区地震局,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010010 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文按照活动地块边界带和地震区的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了东北地震区1900年以来Ms4.7级以上地震资料,这样得到的地震资料可能具有一个完整的地质系统性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测,模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取,引用了一种数学方法来描述东北地震区的地震趋势规律。
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| 关 键 词： | 活动地块 地震区 地震趋势 数学建模 |
ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC TENDENCY BY MATH MODELING IN NORTHEAST CHINA AREA |
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| XUE Ding.ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC TENDENCY BY MATH MODELING IN NORTHEAST CHINA AREA[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2008,24(3):17-20. |
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| Authors: | XUE Ding |
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| Institution: | XUE Ding (Seismological Bureau of lnner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot 010010, China) |
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| Abstract: | In the paper, according to the structure devision result of active block boundany and seismic area, using MAPSIS software, the author selects the earthquake Ms ≥4.7 data of Northeast China area. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear math polynomial which coefficent parameters can be obtained by method of least square ; The author made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1-2 year＇s time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in Northeast China area |
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| Keywords: | active tectonic block seismic area seismic tendency math modeling |
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