Urban growth monitoring and projection using remote sensing and geographic information systems: a case study in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area,Minnesota

This study investigates urban growth dynamics from regional to local scales in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and demonstrates how metropolitan growth can be driven by policies. Urban change from 1975 to 2006 was detected using Landsat imagery. Future growth in 2030 was modelled based on two scenarios with or without regional development policies incorporated. City- or township-level growth was examined by a zonal analysis. Results show urban grew 126,700 ha from 1975 to 2006. The Markov-Cellular Automata model projected at least another 67,000 ha of urban growth from 2006 to 2030. When regional development policies were incorporated, homogeneous and compact growth patterns were predicted along the urban periphery; however, actual land supplies within the cities along the urban edge are facing challenges to accommodate the projected growth as large portions of suitable lands are located outside of the 2030 Municipal Urban Service Area boundary.