中国1960－2010年降雨增减、转折时空演变特征

根据1960－2010年中国563个地面观测站年降雨量资料，采用气候变化趋势转折判别模型和ANUSPLIN插值软件对中国年降雨增减、转折变化的时空变化规律进行研究。结果表明：近50年中国年降雨量出现环勃海地区和西南地区两个减少中心和高原东南地区和江淮地区南部两个增加中心；中国降雨在20世纪70年代、80年代和90年代出现了3次转折变化，其中20世纪70年代、80年代两次沿纬向变化，20世纪90年代沿经向变化，3次初始转折时间由西向东转移；降雨的增减沿纬向呈带状分布，大部分地区降雨增减呈交替变化，表现为三极子型分布。中国降雨增减、转折变化中心线与南北分界线基本一致。

Temporal and Spatial Variations and Transition of Precipitation in China during 1960-2010

Increase or decrease and transition of precipitation in China are studied in this paper based on the annual precipitation records of 563 stations during 1960-2010 by using the piecewise linear fitting model. Data analysis is performed by using ANUSPLIN software. The results are as follows: In the past 50 years there were two increase centers and two decrease centers of precipitation in China. The increase centers were in southeast of the Tibetan Plateau and south of the Yangze River-Huai River Basin, while the decrease centers in the Bohai Sea rim region and southwest China. Three precipitation transitions occurred in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The transitions in the 1970s and 1980s moved along the longitude, and that in the 1990s along the latitude. And the initial years of the transitions moved from west to east. The increase and decrease zones of precipitation were distributed along the latitude. The increase and decrease zones occurred alternately in most areas of China and the distribution was of “+, -, +” or “-, +, -” type along the longitude. The center line of precipitation change was basically in accord with the North-South dividing line of China.