Prediction of variability of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under the climate change conditions based on automated statistical downscaling |
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Authors: | Jing Guo Hua Chen Chong-Yu Xu Shenglian Guo Jiali Guo |
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Institution: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, People’s Republic of China;(2) Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;(3) HydroChina Huadong Engineering Corporation, Hangzhou, 310014, People’s Republic of China;(4) Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden |
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Abstract: | Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by general circulation models
(GCMs). Therefore the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled to obtain the finer resolution climate change scenarios. In
this study, an automated statistical downscaling (ASD) regression-based approach is proposed for predicting the daily precipitation
of 138 main meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin for 2010–2099 by statistical downscaling of the outputs of
general circulation model (HadCM3) under A2 and B2 scenarios. After that, the spatial–temporal changes of the amount and the
extremes of predicted precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are investigated by Mann–Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation.
The results showed that: (1) the amount and the change pattern of precipitation could be reasonably simulated by ASD; (2)
the predicted annual precipitation will decrease in all sub-catchments during 2020s, while increase in all sub-catchments
of the Yangtze River Basin during 2050s and during 2080s, respectively, under A2 scenario. However, they have mix-trend in
each sub-catchment of Yangtze River basin during 2020s, but increase in all sub-catchments during 2050s and 2080s, except
for Hanjiang River region during 2080s, as far as B2 scenario is concerned; and (3) the significant increasing trend of the
precipitation intensity and maximum precipitation are mainly occurred in the northwest upper part and the middle part of the
Yangtze River basin for the whole year and summer under both climate change scenarios and the middle of 2040–2060 can be regarded
as the starting point for pattern change of precipitation maxima. |
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