济阳坳陷八面河探区油气资源前景和勘探效益预测

在对山东省八面河探区基本石油地质特征、勘探历程及实际的勘探效益和累积发现地质储量变化分析基础上，应用基于探区油藏总体服从帕莱托分布假设的抽样分析发现过程模型，对其石油资源潜力和油藏总体分布进行了预测；并在预测结果的基础上，应用所建立的勘探效益预测仿真模型，对探区勘探效益变化进行了模拟，且外推了未来勘探效益及累积发现地质储量的变化趋势。通过发现过程模型预测，八面河探区总资源量为14900储量单位，剩余资源量为5300储量单位，其中大部分剩余资源分布于较小规模的油藏中。从勘探效益分析可知，八面河探区已进入成熟的勘探阶段，预计未来平均每日探井发现地质储量将小于28储量单位，勘探效益处于一定稳定、低效且缓慢下降的阶段。

Resource Potential and Exploration Benefit Prediction of Bamianhe Petroleum Play,Jiyang Depression

The total amount of petroleum in an assessment unit can be estimated using Horvitz Thompson estimator if the probability of finding a pool is proportional to its magnitude in the process of oil and gas discovery. But the estimator cannot be used straightly to obtain the total potential if the probability of finding a pool is not proportional to its magnitude. To solve the problem, a method that can be used to evaluate the individual pool size in the unit is presented using both Horvitz Thompson estimator and the maximum probability theory with the assumption that the oil pool population obeys the Pareto distribution. In the meantime, the exploration benefit of the unit can be estimated using exploration simulation method on the basis of the predicted results by the above mentioned discovery process model. By using exploration simulation method, the petroleum potential of Bamianhe petroleum play in Jiyang Depression, Bohaiwan Basin, is forecasted and the future benefit of the play is predicted. In the process of prediction, the initial exploration stage with low efficiency and the normal exploration stage with the most amount of petroleum to be discovered are considered separately. The total amount of the petroleum resource is forecasted to be 14900 reserve units. The resource to be discovered amounts to 5300 reserve units, most of which are hidden in many smaller pools. The exploration of Bamianhe play has entered into a mature stage. The future benefit will be less than 28 reserve units per exploration well and will decline slowly.