昆明太华山1954~2019年气温与降水的气候特征

基于线性趋势、累积距平、M-K突变检验和小波变换方法,统计昆明太华山近66年气温和降水的气候特征,归纳气候变化规律,结果表明:昆明太华山近66年年平均气温呈上升趋势,1999~2004年之间发生了突变。年平均气温显著偏冷的年份集中在1980年前,显著偏暖的年份集中在2010年后。分析出年平均气温有16年左右的周期,还有7~8年和3~4年的小尺度准周期变化。年降水量线性倾向率为-3.1349 mm/年,呈递减趋势。1954~2019年年降水量累计距平曲线总体呈双峰波动状态。年降水量存在14年的周期最显著,还存在6~7年和3年的小尺度准周期变化。2017~2019年的年降水量震荡周期等值线在6~7年和3年为负值,而且均未闭合,因此,可大概预测未来2年内昆明年降水量持续偏小。

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AT KUNMING TAIHUA MOUNTAIN DURING 1954 TO 2019

Based on linear trend,cumulative anomaly,m-k mutation and wavelet transform,the climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation at Kunming Taihua mountain in the past 66 years were statistically analyzed,and the climatic change rules were summarized.The results showed that the average annual temperature at Kunming Taihua mountain had been on the rise for 66 years,and there was a sudden change from 1999 to 2004.Years with significantly cooler average annual temperature were concentrated before 1980,and years with significantly warmer average temperature were concentrated after 2010.It was found that the annual average temperature had a period of about 16 years,and there were also small-scale quasi-periodic changes of 7~8 years and 3~4 years.The linear trend rate of annual precipitation was-3.1349mm/year,and showed a decreasing trend.The cumulative annual precipitation anomaly curve from 1954 to 2019 showed a bimodal fluctuation.The 14-year period of annual precipitation was the most significant,and there were also small-scale quasi-periodic changes of 6~7 years and 3 years.From 2017 to 2019,the annual precipitation oscillation period isoline line was negative in 6~7 years and 3 years,and was not closed.Therefore,it can be predicted that the annual precipitation in Kunming will continue to be small in the next 2 years.