赤道东太平洋和印度洋-南海暖池海温场的协同作用对西太平洋副热带高压的影响

本文应用Hadley Center提供的全球最新海表温度资料,分析探讨了赤道太平洋和印度洋-南海(简称印-南)暖池区域海表面温度异常(SSTA)与西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)变化的关系,结果表明,赤道东太平洋SSTA和印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高的影响存在明显的时空分布差异,它们二者对副高变化存在协同作用的影响。前者对副高的影响始于超前一年的春季,持续到当年的春季。后者则始于前冬,持续到当年的夏季。赤道东太平洋SSTA对副高的影响主要通过对经向环流影响所致,印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高影响的主要途径是通过经向环流和水汽输送,前者主要体现在对对流层中低层经向Hadley环流的影响,而后者主要体现在对对流层低层经向季风环流及其伴随的水汽输送的影响,它们二者对副高的影响机理存在不同。作者提出了赤道东太平洋和印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高存在协同影响作用,并通过最优子集回归分析,建立了副高异常变化的预测模型,对2015年5-8月副高强度进行了预测,其结果是5-8月的副高强度较常年偏强,扣除超强台风的影响,预测结果正确,由此可以认为,本文建立的预测模型是可靠的。这一工作的特点是强调了赤道东太平洋和印-南暖池的协同作用对副高持续性的影响,为副高异常变化及其降水的预测提供更为可靠的依据。

The synergistic effect of SSTA between the equatorial eastern Pacific and the Indian-South China Sea warm pool region influence on the western Pacific subtropical high

In this paper, Hadley Center provided the latest global sea surface temperature data.It is analyzed that relationship between the equatorial Pacific and Indian-South China Sea (Indian-South) warm pool region sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Results show that the effect SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and India-South warm pool region SSTA on WPSH is obvious to the difference in temporal and spatial distribution, the both of them are playing an important synergistic effect in WPSH changes process. The former influence on WPSH that begin spring last year until the spring of this year. The latter that begin in early winter until summer of this year. The way that SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific influence on WPSH mainly through the impact on the meridional circulation, however the way that SSTA in the Indian-South warm pool mainly impact of WPSH is through the meridional circulation and water vapor transportation. The former is mainly that SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific influence to Hadley circulation at the middle and lower layer in the troposphere, while the latter is mainly influence to monsoon circulation and associated water vapor transportation at lower layer in the troposphere. The mechanism of these two effects on WPSH is different. The author first time puts forward the process that SSTA between the equatorial eastern Pacific and India-South warm pool region influence on the WPSH which has synergistic effect. Through the optimal subset regression analysis, the anomalous variation of WPSH forecast model is established, and the prognosticated result is that the intensity of WPSH are stronger than the normal in May, June, July and August 2015, the actual result are stronger than the normal of the intensity of the WPSH, therefore, we think that the forecast model is dependable. This work is to emphasize the characteristics of the equatorial eastern Pacific and India-South warm pool synergy effect on persistence variation in WPSH, it is provided more reliable basis for the prediction of WPSH abnormal change and its precipitation.