Spatial and Temporal Variations of Rainfall over Northern Asia in the Last 100 Years and Their Possible Changes in the Future |
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Institution: | Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA, Lanzhou 730020
Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA, Lanzhou 730020 |
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Abstract: | The reliability of CRU05 rainfall dataset produced by Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia is examined against 22 station observations in the northern China. While this dataset has high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage, comparison with station data suggests that it only has higher quality in the last 70 years in the western China. When using this dataset to analyze rainfall variability over the northern China, significant oscillations with periods of 3, 10, and 30 yr are found, with interannual and interdecadal oscillations being the major characteristics of drought and flood events in the region in the
last 100 years. Using EOF and REOF analysis, 10 divisions with coherent rainfall variations have been identified, including (i) central Asia and north of Xinjiang, (ii) North China and east of Northwest China,(iii) north and middle of Mongolia, (iv) Hexi Corridor and west of Mongolia, (v)east of the Heilong River,(vi) north of Da Hinggan Mountains, (vii) north of Central Asia, (viii) south of Xinjiang and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, (ix) south of Northeast China, and (x) north of Altay Mountains. Results suggest that the pronounced feature of drought in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China is not isolated. Of course, it is consistent with rainfall variations in the arid areas of Mongolia and Central Asia. In addition,by analyzing prominent oscillations observed in the last several decades, the trends of rainfall variations over the region in the future 10-15 years are discussed. |
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Keywords: | CRU05 datasets Northeast Asia rainfall interannual and interdecadal change prediction |
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