Interdisciplinary approaches: towards new statistical methods for phenological studies |
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Authors: | Irene Lena Hudson |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria;(2) School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia;(3) Institute for Sustainable Systems and Technologies, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia |
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Abstract: | The importance of global environmental questions has significantly advanced the impact of climate change phenology. Whilst
spatial applications continue to be a core application of phenology; in recent years the temporal dimension has also been
revisited, with studies showing that temporal changes, either with a natural or an anthropogenic origin, have significantly
altered phenological rhythms and seasonal development—changes attributed now to an anthropogenically induced temperature increase.
This paper explores and introduces recent and newly developing analytic methods in phenology; with a view to increasing an
interdisciplinary perspective and dialogue. Of particular focus is how we can and best deal with nonlinearity of phenological
change in time and with multiple location studies; rigorously model the inherent multivariate time series structures in climate-phenology
data; further Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, detect multiple change-points; map seasonality calendars; model de-synchronisation
of species globally; invoke old fashioned, yet rarely used circular statistical methods; adapt new transitional state modelling
of phenophases with respect to climate and progress a unified paradigm for meta analytic studies in phenology. The provision
of uncertainty analysis is also still much needed in climate-related phenological research. Reaching consensus on design,
method of data collection and comparable analytic methods is integral to advancing the generalisability of phenological results;
as is a consensus on inclusion criterion for studies selected for phenological meta-analytic studies. A coherent nomenclature
is critically required, but it is currently lacking in many areas of phenology. |
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