1959-2017年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川流域径流及其组分变化

冰川是气候变化的指示器，气候变化对冰川及其径流的影响研究是目前国内外关注的热点和前沿领域之一，目前的研究以模拟为主，实测资料十分有限且不确定性很大。以新疆天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川（简称“1号冰川”）流域为例，基于中国科学院天山冰川观测试验站1959-2017年观测数据，研究了中国西部典型小型冰川流域径流及其组分长期变化以及对气候变化的响应，为冰川径流长期变化过程的认识提供重要参考。结果表明，1号冰川流域径流主要由冰川径流和非冰川区降水径流组成，分别占70%和30%。其中冰川径流又可分为冰川区降水径流和冰川融水径流，分别占44%和26%。59年间，冰川径流整体呈上升趋势，在1992年之后出现了一个阶梯式的上升，与气温升高和降水的增加有关，1997-2007年达到高峰，2008年以后出现波动下降趋势，其原因除了与该时段的降水有所减少有关之外，冰川面积减小的影响也不可忽视。另外，还利用实测径流和冰川物质平衡值，通过水量平衡模型，检验了模型使用的冰川区和非冰川区径流系数。

Changes of the runoff and its components in Urumqi Glacier No.1 catchment,Tianshan Mountains, 1959-2017

Glacier is an indicator of climate change. Now the impact of climate change on glacier and glacial runoff is one of the hot and frontier researches at home and abroad. Studies on the processes and mechanisms of glacial runoff are focuses on simulation since the lack of in situ measured data. Hence we take Urumqi Glacier No.1 catchment at the headwaters of the Urumqi River as an example, based on recent 59-year runoff data observed at Urumqi Glacier No.1 Hydrology Station, mass balance of the glacier, meteorological data at Daxigou to study the long-term variations of runoff and its components in Urumqi Glacier No.1 catchment and its response to climate change. Results indicate that the annual total runoff at the station is 204.33×10⁴ m³ averaged over the past 59 years. Glacial runoff accounts for the highest proportion (70%) of the total runoff, precipitation runoff in non-glaciarized area makes up 30% of the total runoff. Glacial runoff can be divided into precipitation runoff in glacial areas and glacier mass balance, accounting for 44% and 26%, respectively. Glacial runoff and its components at Urumqi Glacier No.1 Hydrology Station show an overall upward trend during the period of 1959-2017. Precipitation-produced runoff in glacial and non-glacial areas mainly depends on the amount of total precipitation and has presented a ladder-like upswing trend since 1996. With the decrease of glacier area, the precipitation runoff in non-glaciarized area has an increasing trend while in glaciarized area has a decreasing trend. The total runoff, glacial runoff and mass balance are correlated well with the mean air temperature of July-August, and also show positively relationship with precipitation. The variation of glacial runoff can be divided into four stages:a low level stage from 1959 to 1984, a rising stage from 1985 to 1996, a peak stage from 1997 to 2007 and a declining stage from 2008 to 2017. In the stage of 2008-2017, glacial runoff showed a weak decreasing trend and did not coincide with the increase of air temperature, which may be attributing to the decrease of precipitation and the shrinkage of glacierized arnce