基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数的新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹驱动因素研究

水资源紧缺是限制我国西北干旱区农业发展的主要瓶颈，正确评估地区农业用水效率及其影响机制，可为提高农业用水效率提供理论依据。以新疆为研究区，基于1988-2015年的长系列数据，分别计算出历年北疆、南疆、东疆典型作物（小麦、棉花）生产水足迹，并采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数定量分析气象因素（年降雨量、年日照时数、年均温度、年均风速、年均湿度）和技术因素（农机总动力、有效灌溉率、化肥施用折纯量）对作物生产水足迹的影响贡献率。结果表明： 1988年至2015年，东疆小麦、棉花生产水足迹显著高于北疆和南疆，在气候变化和技术进步的综合影响下，各地区典型作物生产水足迹逐年降低，其中技术进步对新疆典型作物单产水足迹影响显著高于气候因素，是驱动新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹变化的主要控制因素。地区尺度上，北疆、南疆、东疆气候变化和农业技术发展均呈现显著的地区差异，总体来看，北疆气候条件最适宜作物生长，东疆气候最为恶劣，北疆、南疆农业技术发展速率整体上高于东疆。

Analyzing the driving factors of water footprint in typical crop production in Xinjiang by using Cobb-Douglas production function

The shortage of water resources is a main bottleneck restricting the agricultural development in the arid regions of Northwest China. Correct assessment of regional agricultural water use efficiency and its impact mechanisms can provide a theoretical basis for improving agricultural water use efficiency. In this study, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as the study area; using the water footprint of crop production (WF) as an indicator of water consumption, the water footprints of typical crops (wheat and cotton) are calculated in North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang and East Xinjiang from 1988 through 2015. On this basis, the influencing factors were evaluated of changes in WF during the 28-year from the perspectives of change in climate (temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed and relative humidity) and technical factors (agricultural machinery power, fertilizer consumption and the rate of effective irrigation) by the method of Cobb-Douglas production function. The results show that from 1988 through 2015, the water footprint of wheat and cotton in East Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that in North and South Xinjiang. Under the combined influence of climate change and technological progress, the water footprint of typical crop production in each region has been significantly reduced. Furthermore, the influence of technological progress on the water footprint of typical crop production in Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that of climatic factors, and become the main controlling factor driving the change of water footprint of typical crop production in various regions of Xinjiang. On the regional scale, climate change and agricultural technology development show significant regional differences. Overall, the climatic condition in North Xinjiang had been the most suitable for crop growth, while the climate in East Xinjiang had been the worst. The climate change over the 28 years in North and East Xinjiang had reduced the water demand of crops, while the situation in South Xinjiang had been reversed. The rate of agriculture technological development in North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang had been generally higher than that in East Xinjiang. However, to adjust the planting structure to give play to regional climate advantages and to improve agricultural water use efficiency in East Xinjiang are worth learning for other regions.