黄河流域高质量发展空间格局演进——基于新发展理念视角北大核心CSCD

以黄河流域66个市级单元为研究对象,基于新发展理念选取34项指标构建高质量发展指标体系,利用熵值法计算得到黄河流域高质量发展水平,以高质量发展水平、高质量发展平均增量和平均增速为变量,利用ESDA法分析2000—2020年黄河流域高质量发展空间关联和格局演化特征。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年黄河流域高质量发展水平相似市域空间相关,高质量发展水平在波动中有所提高,发展趋于均衡。(2)2000—2015年,黄河流域高质量发展平均增量和平均增速的空间关联较为显著,均呈现出强集聚—弱集聚—较强集聚演变特征,增长状态相似市域彼此邻近;但2015—2020年增长状态相似市域随机分布,空间不相关。(3)高质量发展平均增量和平均增速格局变化较大,高值区均由东部向中部再向西部转移,高值区数量大于低值区数量,黄河流域高质量整体发展较快。平均增量冷热点区呈现相对分散—集中分布—分散布局的态势,平均增速相似市域由相对分散向集中连片演化,不同等级冷热点圈层分布。(4)发展基础相对较差的区域增长速度较快,城市群仍是带动黄河流域高质量发展的重点区域。未来应坚持新发展理念,创新城市群合作模式,推动黄河流域高质量一体化发展。

Spatial pattern evolution of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin on the perspective of new development philosophy

Taking 66 cities in the Yellow River Basin as the research object， and selecting 34 indicators from new development philosophy to construct a high-quality development index system， the entropy method was used to calculate the high-quality development level of the Yellow River Basin， and the high-quality development level and the average growth volume and average growth rate of the high-quality development level are used as variables to analyze spatial correlation and pattern evolution characteristics of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 by ways of ESDA. The result shows that：（1）Similar high-quality development levels cities in the Yellow River Basin had spatial correlation during the study period， and the high-quality development levels increased amid fluctuations， and the development tended to be balanced. （2） From 2000 to 2015， the average growth volume and average growth rate of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin had significant spatial correlations， the evolution characteristics tended to shift from strong agglomerations to weak ones and to strong ones， cities with similar growth were close to each other； but in 2015-2020， cities with similar growth were randomly distributed and spatially uncorrelated. （3） The spatial pattern of high-quality development average growth volume and average growth rate changed greatly， with high-value regions migration from the east to middle and then to the west. The number of high-value regions was greater than the number of low-value regions， and the overall high-quality development speed of the Yellow River Basin was relatively fast. Average growth volume hot and cold areas changed from a relative dispersion to a centralized distribution one and then to a decentralized layout one， and the average growth rate of similar cities evolved from relatively scattered to concentrated and contiguous one， and different levels of hot and cold spots were distributed in layers.（4）Regions with relatively weaker development foundations displayed a higher growth rate， and urban agglomerations were still key areas to drive high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. In the future， we should adhere to the new development philosophy， innovate the urban agglomeration cooperation model， and promote the high-quality integrated development of the Yellow River Basin.