2001—2020年中国洪涝灾害损失与致灾危险性研究

利用最新的全国洪涝灾害损失资料以及气象站点降水观测资料,研究了2001—2020年中国洪涝灾害损失的演变特征及其与降水的关系。结果表明：2001—2020年,我国洪涝灾害造成的年均受灾人口超过1亿人次,直接经济损失1678.6亿元。尽管洪涝灾害造成的全国直接经济损失有增加趋势,但全国农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、死亡人口、损坏房屋以及直接经济损失占国内生产总值的比例均呈减少趋势。从空间分布来看,长江流域上中游地区及黑龙江、河北、甘肃、广西等地是洪涝灾害损失较为严重的地区。全国大部分地区死亡人口和损坏房屋呈减少趋势,直接经济损失呈增加趋势,而受灾人口和农作物受灾面积呈北增南减的变化趋势。近10年,我国北方大部分地区除了死亡人口外其余各项损失均较上个10年增加,其中黑龙江和河北增加幅度较大。同时,近10年我国北方大部分地区降水量增加,尤其是黑龙江、河北等地暴雨量和暴雨日数增加幅度较大,加剧了相对脆弱的北方地区的洪涝灾害风险。

Floods losses and hazards in China from 2001 to 2020

Based on the latest provincial flood disaster loss data and observational precipitation data of meteorological stations in China, the spatial-temporal characteristics of flood disaster losses and the related hazards from 2001 to 2020 were studied. During 2001-2020, floods have caused an annual average of more than 100 million affected population, with direct economic losses of CNY 167.86 billion yuan. Despite the increasing trend of direct economic losses, the affected population and crop area, fatalities, damaged houses and proportion of direct economic losses to gross domestic product all show decreasing trend in the recent 20 years. The areas are more seriously affected by floods in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Gansu, and Guangxi provinces. The fatalities and damaged houses are decreasing while the direct economic losses are increasing in most of China. However, the affected population and crop area show different trend distribution, increasing in northern China while decreasing in southern China. In the past decade, flood losses except fatalities have increased compared to the previous decade in most parts of northern China, especially in Hebei and Heilongjiang provinces. At the same time, total precipitation increases in most parts of northern China, and the amount of heavy rainfall and rainstorm days increase greatly in Heilongjiang and Hebei provinces, which further increases the risk of floods in the relatively vulnerable northern China.