黑河流域植物物种多样性对土地利用变化的响应北大核心CSCD

黑河流域土地利用变化严重影响植物物种多样性。为了解自然、社会经济因素对黑河流域土地利用变化影响下植物物种多样性的变化趋势,本研究使用Dyna-CLUE模型,预测2050年土地利用变化,揭示多因素影响下黑河流域土地利用变化,及土地利用变化与草本、灌木物种多样性间的关系。结果表明:降水、GDP、与自然村距离等因子共同驱动土地利用变化,2050年林地、草地和水域面积的增加和未利用地面积的减小,提高了灌木、草本植物的多样性,并使之均匀度更高,种间优势度减小。耕地面积的扩张和耕地集约化导致植物分布不均、多样性减少。将模拟结果和植物物种多样性发展趋势相结合能够对未来的土地利用规划、政策及生态保护决策提供依据。应针对不同区域土地利用变化情况,制定相应的生物多样性和生态环境保护政策,促进黑河流域生态环境的恢复并支持流域可持续发展。

Responses of plant species diversity to land use change： a case study in the Heihe River Basin

Plant species diversity is seriously affected by land use change in the Heihe River Basin. This study used the Dyna-CLUE model to simulate land use change in 2050 to understand the trends of plant species diversity under the influence of natural and socioeconomic factors on land use change in the Heihe River Basin， to reveal land use change in the Heihe River Basin under the influence of multiple factors， and the relationship between land use change and herbaceous and shrub species diversity. The results showed that factors such as precipitation， GDP and distance from natural villages jointly drove land use changes， and the increase of forest， grassland and water and the decrease of unutilized land area in 2050 increased the diversity of shrubs and herbs and led to a higher evenness and a decrease of interspecific dominance. The expansion of farmland and intensification of farming land lead to uneven distribution of plants and decrease in diversity. The combination of model simulation results and plant species diversity trends can provide a basis for future land use planning， policy and ecological conservation decisions. Corresponding biodiversity and ecological protection policies should be formulated for land use changes in different regions to promote ecological restoration and support sustainable development in the Heihe River Basin.