Avian extinction at the end of the Cretaceous: Assessing the magnitude and subsequent explosive radiation

Debate on the magnitude of Cretaceous extinctions and timing of modern bird origins has sharply coalesced over the past two decades into contested models, gradualistic or explosive. Molecular clocks, bolstered by phylogenetic, biogeographic, and vicariance models, support an Early Cretaceous origin for birds and mammals over 100 million years ago. Yet, although numerous new Chinese fossils of archaic ornithurine birds have been discovered in the Jehol Biota of the Early Cretaceous of China, none shows close affinity to modern neornithines; it is not until the latest Cretaceous when some fossils show more advanced ornithurine morphology, and are possibly Neornithes. In contrast to mass survival scenarios, most paleontological evidence appears to support an explosive radiation following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction event, closely paralleling the geometry of mammal evolution. Gradualistic models ignore recent evidence of cataclysmic worldwide events following the impact event. How could mass survival of the environmentally sensitive birds have occurred following cosmopolitan environmental destruction, when other terrestrial vertebrates, particularly ectotherms, suffered dramatic loss? Given the paucity and scrappy nature of avian fossils immediately prior to and after the K–Pg boundary, it is prudent to use mammalian and other biotic evolution in the Paleogene as a guidepost for avian evolution. Our continued inability to produce a veracious phylogeny of higher avian taxa is likely related to a Paleogene explosive burst or ‘big bang’ evolution of bird and mammal evolution, resulting in short ordinal internodes.