沙漠型景区旅游环境承载力预警研究——以宁夏沙坡头为例

以沙坡头景区为例,引入预警理论,运用旅游环境承载率计算公式和BP神经网络预测模型对沙漠型景区现状和未来旅游环境承载力进行预警分析。结果表明:(1)将沙漠型景区旅游环境承载力预警警界区间划分为弱载(<0.8)、适载(0.8～1.0)、轻度超载(1.0～1.2)、中度超载(1.2～1.5)、严重超载(>1.5)等5个级别,对应的预警状态分别用黑灯、绿灯、黄灯、橙灯和红灯来警示;(2)沙坡头景区现状旅游环境承载力在旅游旺季整体上处于弱载状态,但"五一"、"十一"假期处于超载状态;(3)沙坡头景区在2016—2020年内旅游环境承载力仍会处于不断上升的趋势,但速度会放缓,"五一"、"十一"假期旅游高峰期间会处于超载状态。根据承载力预警结果,提出不同承载状态的预警方案。

Early Warning of the Tourism Environmental Bearing Capacity in the Desert Scenic Area: A Case Study in Shapotou,Ningxia, China

Taking the Shapotou scenic area as an example, introducing the early warning theory, using the tourism environment bearing rate calculation formula (TECR=TECQ/TECC) and the BP neural network prediction model, the present situation and future of the desert scenic area are analyzed. The conclusion is obtained:(1) The tourism environment bearing capacity early warning border area in the desert scenic area is divided into weak load (<0.8), appropriate load (0.8-1.0), mild overloading(1.0-1.2), moderate overload (1.2-1.5) and serious overloading (>1.5). The corresponding warning states were warned by black light, green light, yellow lamp, orange lamp and red light, respectively. (2) The current tourism environment bearing capacity of the scenic area was in weak state on the whole tourist season, but the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday are in overloading state. (3) The tourism environmental bearing capacity of the scenic area in the next 5 years will still in the rising trend, but the speed will slow down, the holiday peak period of the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday will overload. According to the bearing capacity early warning results, the early warning scheme of different.