CMIP3气候模式对东亚冬季大气环流模拟能力的评估

利用1960—1999年ECMWF月平均再分析资料(ERA40)和耦合模式比较计划(Phase 3 of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project,简称CMIP3)21个气候耦合模式对20世纪气候模拟试验的模式结果,从气候态和年际变化两个方面,评估了CMIP3气候模式对东亚冬季大气环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式对东亚地区冬季海平面气压、850 hPa纬向风、经向风和500 hPa高度场气候态的模拟存在不同程度的偏差,但均能较好模拟出上述要素气候态的空间分布特征。总体而言,模式对500 hPa高度场气候态的模拟效果最好,而对850 hPa经向风的模拟效果较差。(2)模式基本上能抓住近40年来东亚地区冬季500 hPa高度场的主要变化特征,但基本上不能模拟出冬季海平面气压、850 hPa纬向风和经向风的变化特征。此外,模式对阿留申低压、蒙古高压和东亚冬季风强度的变化特征几乎没有模拟能力。

ASSESSMENT OF CMIP3 CLIMATE MODELS PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATION OF WINTER ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION OVER EAST ASIA

Based on 1960—1999 ECMWF reanalysis data and model outputs from 20th Century Climate Simulation experiments by 21 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models(CGCMs) of Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3),the capabilities of the climate model in simulating winter atmospheric general circulation over East Asia are evaluated from the aspects of the climatology and interannual variability.Results show that:(1) Despite bias exists in model results,the basic spatial patterns of climatology of sea level pressure(SLP),850 hPa zonal wind(u),meridional wind(v) and 500 hPa geopotential height are well captured by all the models.On the whole,the simulation of 500 hPa potential height is the best while the simulation of 850 hPa v is relatively poor.(2) Most models can basically reproduce the variation of winter 500 hPa geopotential height in recent 40 years,however,they fail to capture the main features of the variations of winter SLP,850 hPa u and v.Moreover,the capabilities of the models in simulating the intensity variations of the Aleutian low and Mongolia high as well as East Asian winter monsoon are very poor.