Soil moisture: a residual problem underlying AGCMs |
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Authors: | Adam R Cornwell L D Danny Harvey |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University of Toronto, 100 St. George Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G3, Canada |
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Abstract: | This paper critically reviews and intercompares land surface schemes (LSSs) as used in atmospheric general circulation models
(AGCMs) to simulate soil moisture and its response to a warmer climate, and potential evapotranspiration approaches as used
in operational soil moisture monitoring and in predicting the response of soil moisture to a warmer climate. AGCM predictions
of overall soil moisture change are in broad agreement but disagree sharply in some regions. Intercomparison projects have
sought to evaluate the LSSs used by AGCMs for both accuracy and consistency. These studies have found that different LSSs
can produce very different simulations even when supplied with identical atmospheric forcing. As well, LSSs that produce similar
surface results from present-day or control climates often diverge when forced with climatic change data. Furthermore, no
single LSS has been identified that produces an adequate simulation of all of temperature, moisture, evapotranspiration and
runoff. AGCM LSSs must resolve the surface energy balance (SEB) in order to compute realistic heat fluxes between with the
atmospheric model. LSSs have been used with AGCMs in both on-line (fully coupled) and off-line modes. In off-line climatic
change experiments, AGCM predictions of atmospheric temperature and precipitation have been used, along with model downward
radiative fluxes at the surface, to drive their own uncoupled LSS. However, there are simple non-energy-balance methods for
estimating evapotranspiration that have been traditionally used in agricultural and meteorological applications. These schemes
compute a potential evapotranspiration (PE) based on temperature and/or net radiation inputs, with the PE modified based on
the availability of soil moisture. Operational PE approaches have also been used with AGCM data in off-line climate change
experiments. The advantages of this approach are that it is simpler and requires less information, although (like the off-line
SEB approach) it leaves out the simulation of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere.Although the SEB approach is
essential for LSSs that must be coupled to AGCMs, this does not necessarily make it superior to an off-line operational PE
LSS when it comes to quantities such as soil moisture. The quality of current observational data is insufficient to demonstrate
that either approach is better than the other. Both approaches should continue to be used and intercompared when predicting
the impacts of climatic change on soil moisture. |
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