时间—震级可预测模式及其应用研究进展

文章介绍了由希腊地震学家帕帕扎乔斯提出，并由他及其同事建立的时间－震级可预测模式。该模式考虑了地震复发过程中的不确定因素，不仅可以用于预测地震的发生时间，还可用于预测地震的强度，因而在长期地震预测研究中具有应用和发展前景。文中介绍了该模式的基础理论与建模方法，同时指出了该模式在建模与计算方法上存在的一些问题。

THE TIME MAGNITUDE PREDICTABLE MODEL AND THE PROGRESS IN ITS APPLICATION RESEARCH

In this paper,the time magnitude predictable model,proposed by the Greek seismologist B C Papazachos and established by Papazachos and his colleagues,is introduced The model takes the uncertain factors of earthquake recurrence into account It can be used to predict both the time of earthquake occurrence and the earthquake strength,so it has the prospect for application and development in long term earthquake prediction researches The paper outlines the basic theory of the model and the method for establishing the model;puts forward some problems in establishing the model and completation method of this model